镍、不锈钢月度策略报告-20260302

Report Title - Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly Strategy Report, March 2026 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the tightening of nickel ore quotas and the reality and expectation of a shortage in nickel ore supply, the premium of nickel ore has gradually strengthened to $35 - $40 per wet ton, and the price of nickel iron has also strengthened, leading to an upward shift in the support for the pyrometallurgical process of nickel prices. After the holiday, it enters the traditional peak season, and the demand has improved month - on - month. Stainless steel experiences seasonal inventory accumulation after the holiday, and the crude steel production schedule in March has increased month - on - month, with relatively firm cost support. In the new energy sector, according to third - party data, the production schedule of ternary materials in March has also increased. Fundamentally, cost is the core support. Currently, the inventory pressure of primary nickel is still high based on weekly data. Opportunities for light - position trial long positions near the cost line can still be continuously monitored, along with the inventory situation of primary nickel. If the subsequent visible inventory can be significantly depleted, it may have a further positive feedback on prices. Additionally, overseas macro risks need to be vigilant [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - In February, nickel prices fluctuated widely. The monthly decline of SHFE nickel was 0.7%, and the decline of LME nickel was 2.2% [6]. 3.2 Inventory - During the week, LME inventory increased by 270 tons to 287,976 tons; SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 27 tons to 53,131 tons, social inventory increased by 2,036 tons to 76,538 tons, and bonded - area inventory remained at 2,200 tons [6][16]. 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Nickel Ore - The premium of Indonesian nickel ore increased by $4.5 per ton to $37 per wet ton. The premium of 1.5% nickel ore from the Philippines increased by $1 per ton to $8.0 per wet ton [4][6][22]. 3.3.2 Refined Nickel - In February, the estimated production of electrolytic nickel decreased by 5% month - on - month to 35,800 tons [6]. 3.3.3 Nickel Iron - The mainstream market quotes are concentrated at 1,080 - 1,100 yuan per nickel (including tax at the hatch), and some scattered orders are quoted as high as 1,130 - 1,150 yuan per nickel [4][6][25]. 3.3.4 Intermediate Products - The discount decreased slightly month - on - month, the spot price weakened, and trading activity declined [4][6]. 3.4 Demand 3.4.1 New Energy - The weekly production of ternary materials decreased by 664 tons to 15,617 tons, and the inventory decreased by 533 tons to 17,234 tons. The weekly production increased by 11.6% to 26 GWh, among which the production of lithium - iron batteries increased by 11.1% to 20 GWh, and the production of ternary batteries increased by 13.2% to 6 GWh. The Passenger Car Association predicts that after the holiday, the price - cut promotion ability of new - energy vehicle manufacturers will decline. The weak price elasticity will make consumers more cautious, and it may suppress the normal release of car - buying demand in the short term. However, anti - involution in prices is a long - term benefit, which helps to improve the wait - and - see sentiment in car - buying and guide the healthy development of industrial consumption [4][6][46]. 3.4.2 Stainless Steel - This month, the overall price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the price strengthened again in the past week. The total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses of the national mainstream market was 1.173 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.57%. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series increased by 80,000 tons to 729,000 tons. According to Mysteel, the crude steel production schedule in March is 3.6335 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 32.69% and a year - on - year increase of 3.46%. Among them, the 200 series is 1.0771 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.18% and a year - on - year increase of 11.63%; the 300 series is 1.8948 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.37%; the 400 series is 661,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.02% and a year - on - year increase of 2.51%. Raw materials are stronger than finished products, and the spot profit has weakened slightly [4][6][57]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - Not provided in detail in the content 3.6 Options - Charts related to historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratio of open interest and trading volume of SHFE nickel options are presented [90][91][95]