3月尿素月度报告-20260302

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the urea fundamentals were affected by the holiday, but overall supply and demand remained in a tight - balance state due to the approaching farming season. The Indian tender and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts brought short - term emotional disturbances, but the probability of export liberalization during the spring plowing season is low. The high supply, low inventory, and high - demand expectations determine the main logic of a moderately strong uptrend. The guiding price for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices and subsequent state reserve releases will limit the upside. In March, urea is expected to fluctuate moderately upwards within a range, and attention should be paid to the impact of state reserve releases on the urea futures market [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In February, the main urea contract fluctuated and rose, with a monthly increase of 3.18% and an amplitude of 5.92%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, there was a short - term supply - demand mismatch. Supported by the spring plowing season, stimulated by the Indian tender, and limited by the price ceiling for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the price increased, and the subsequent upward logic awaits the peak season [12] - Urea warehouse and factory warehouse receipts have a maximum validity period of 4 months. As of February 27, there were 0 registered urea warehouse receipts, and although the previous warehouse receipts were higher than in previous years, it was the time for warehouse receipt cancellation [15] - Since February, as the farming season approached, prices began to rise. With low inventory at the beginning of the year, prices were higher than in 2025. The ex - factory prices in major regions fluctuated between 1760 - 1830 yuan/ton. On February 28, the guiding price for April - June was announced, which was the same as the March price. The ex - factory quotes in Shandong were concentrated at 1840 yuan/ton. In March, spot prices are expected to rise moderately, but the upside is limited as they are approaching the guiding price [18] - In February, the basis strengthened, and after entering the peak season, the basis is expected to gradually turn into a premium [27] - As of February 27, the 5 - 9 spread was 39 yuan/ton, 17 yuan higher than at the end of last month. The spread strengthened, and the market is gradually transforming into a near - strong, far - weak Back structure, which is expected to deepen as prices rise [31] 2. Supply Situation - In January 2026, urea production was 628.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.12 million tons (4.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 55.65 million tons (9.7%) [38] - As of February 25, the monthly daily production calculated by Longzhong data was 218,000 tons, with daily production consistently above 200,000 tons. There are no short - term long - term shutdown and maintenance plans, and some gas - based plants are resuming production. Based on the current daily production, February's production is expected to be 6.01 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years [38] 3. Cost and Profit - As of March 2, the price of small - sized anthracite in Jincheng remained unchanged at 920 yuan/ton, and the price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 48 yuan/ton to 748 yuan/ton. In February, mines were on holiday and downstream production resumed slowly, with prices fluctuating moderately. Next month, due to major meetings, mine production progress may be affected, and prices are expected to be moderately strong [43] - As of February 27, the fixed - bed cost was 1711 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the coal - water slurry cost was 1517 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 31 yuan/ton; and the natural gas cost was 1978 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The fixed - bed gross profit increased rapidly. Currently, the production profits of coal - water slurry and fixed - bed are both positive, and the cost - line support is weak [43] 4. Inventory and Pending Orders - As of February 27, 2026, the in - factory urea inventory was 1.176 million tons. During the holiday, upstream plants continued production while downstream production and提货 were suspended, leading to a large increase in inventory. After the Lantern Festival, downstream industries began to resume production, and the snow and rain in North China may stimulate early fertilizer preparation and top - dressing for wheat green - turning, causing inventory to start decreasing. The current inventory level is much lower than that after last year's Spring Festival, which supports the urea price [47] - Before the festival, most pending orders were completed, and the number of order days decreased from the high level. In March, the number of order days is expected to remain high, with agricultural demand driving an increase in orders [47] 5. Downstream Agricultural Demand - March marks the peak season for agricultural demand, with the start of fertilizer preparation for wheat green - turning and top - dressing. Recent snow and rain have advanced agricultural demand [50] 6. Compound Fertilizer - In February, the center of the compound fertilizer market rose. The prices of potassium chloride and sulfuric acid supported the increase in compound fertilizer prices. After the holiday, raw materials remained strong, and finished - fertilizer prices remained high. As finished - product inventory is sold and used at the terminal, compound fertilizer prices are expected to continue rising [56] - As of February 27, the compound fertilizer factory's operating rate was 33.41%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.34%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in mid - February, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories dropped sharply. It is expected to gradually resume production after the Lantern Festival. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the current operating load is lower than the same period last year. As of now, the centralized shipment of spring fertilizers has not started, and the in - factory finished - product inventory is high. As factories resume production and downstream demand increases, urea is expected to have strong support during the high - nitrogen compound fertilizer demand period [63] 7. Other Industrial Demands - As of February 27, 2026, the melamine capacity utilization rate rose to 55.91%, a monthly decrease of 8.26%. The holiday had little impact on melamine production [67] 8. International Urea Market - In India's urea import tender on February 18, a total of 3.07 million tons of bids were received from 20 suppliers. The lowest offer on the east coast was $512/ton CFR, a significant increase of $85.2/ton compared to the previous tender, and the lowest offer on the west coast was $508/ton CFR, a significant increase of $83.2/ton compared to the previous tender. The latest shipping date for this tender is March 31 [71]