2026年3月聚烯烃月度报告-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The polyolefin market has limited improvement in its supply - demand pattern currently, but due to the chemical industry's anti - involution expectations, the Middle East situation increasing polyolefin costs and affecting imports, and the gradual resumption of production by downstream factories after the Spring Festival, polyolefin prices are expected to rebound. It is also suggested to exit the position of narrowing the L - PP spread and wait and see [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastic and PP开工率: Plastic开工率 has dropped to around 92%, a neutral - high level; PP企业开工率 has dropped to around 80%, a neutral - low level [3]. - New production capacity: In January 2026, BASF (Guangdong) FDPE with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons were put into production. There are no plans for new polyolefin production capacity to be put into operation in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. - Planned maintenance in March: There are limited newly planned maintenance devices in March [3]. - Downstream开工率: As of the week of February 27, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared to before the Spring Festival holiday; the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared to before the Spring Festival [3]. - Petrochemical inventory: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons and is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [3]. - Cost: Due to the military conflict in the Middle East, oil prices have risen significantly, which has a significant boosting effect on polyolefins [3]. - L - PP spread: The L - PP spread has continued to decline, but after the US attacked Iran, the sharp rise in oil prices and the obstruction of PE exports from Iran have had a greater impact on PE. The L - PP spread has fallen to a low level, and it is recommended to exit the position of narrowing the spread and wait and see [3]. 3.2 Market Review There is information about the daily K - lines of plastic 2605 contract and PP 2605 contract, as well as the spot price, basis trend, production,开工率, import and export, downstream situation, inventory, and profit of plastics and PP in the report, but no clear summary content for the "Market Review" section is provided. 3.3 Plastic - Basis: In February, the decline of spot prices was less than that of futures prices, and the basis rose to a neutral - low level [14]. - Production: In January 2026, PE maintenance volume decreased by 3.20% month - on - month to 425,900 tons and increased by 59.45% year - on - year; PE production increased by 1.67% month - on - month to 3.059 million tons and increased by 9.50% year - on - year [25]. -开工率: In January 2026, PE开工率 increased by 0.28 percentage points to 83.83% month - on - month and decreased by 2.84 percentage points year - on - year. Recently, the plastic开工率 has dropped to around 92%, a neutral - high level [29]. - Import and export: In December 2025, China's PE import volume was 1.3299 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.62% and a month - on - month increase of 25.21%; the export volume was 92,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 58.30% and a month - on - month increase of 7.27%. The net import volume was 1.2378 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.04%. It is expected that the net import volume of LLDPE will continue to decline in 2026 [42]. 3.4 PP - Basis: The PP basis also increased and is at a neutral - low level [20]. - Production: In January 2026, PP maintenance volume increased by 17.12% month - on - month to 831,800 tons and increased by 48.22% year - on - year; PP production decreased by 3.354% month - on - month to 3.4387 million tons and increased by 5.50% year - on - year [32]. -开工率: In January 2026, PP开工率 decreased by 2.46 percentage points to 75.36% month - on - month and decreased by 2.94 percentage points year - on - year. Currently, the PP企业开工率 has dropped to around 80%, a neutral - low level, and the production ratio of standard grade drawstring has dropped to around 25% [36]. - Import and export: In December 2025, China's PP import volume was 332,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.28% and a month - on - month increase of 9.02%; the export volume was 267,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.80% and a month - on - month increase of 4.04%. It is expected that the net import of PP will continue to decline [48]. 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream - Production and export of plastic products: From January to December 2025, the cumulative production of plastic products was 79.1991 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%; the export amount was 748.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [52]. - Downstream开工率: As of the week of February 27, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared to before the Spring Festival holiday; the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared to before the Spring Festival [56]. 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. As of February 27, the early petrochemical inventory was flat at 870,000 tons, 40,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year, and is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [60]. 3.7 Polyolefin Profit In February, the profits of all LLDPE production processes declined, with the coal - based and ethylene - based processes still showing positive profits; all PP production processes were still in losses, but the loss of the oil - based process narrowed [63].