焦煤日报：情绪利好，焦煤反弹-20260302

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The coking coal market has a short - term upward trend due to geopolitical conflicts, but the fundamentals have no obvious change. After the sentiment recovers, it may give back some gains. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of the March meeting [1] Group 3: Summary of Each Part Market Analysis - Coking coal opened high and moved low, with a slight intraday rebound. The Iran - US conflict led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The supply of imported coal is gradually recovering, and domestic mines are resuming work, with the开工 load increasing by 20%. The inventory of coking coal mines has increased by 6.04 tons, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. The iron - water output of steel mills has increased by 2.79 tons, and the emission reduction during the Two Sessions may interfere with short - term operations. The real - estate stimulus policies in many places need attention [1] Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal is 1006 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract is 1094 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 176 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] Fundamental Tracking Supply Data - From February 21st to February 27th, the coking coal开工率of 523 domestic sample mines was 68.24%, a month - on - month increase of 19.35 percentage points. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 64.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.02 tons [4] Demand Data - From February 21st to February 27th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 64.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 tons; the daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 tons. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 233.28 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79 tons [5]