地方债周报：3月计划发行9347亿元地方债-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the primary and secondary markets of local bonds in the week of March 2, 2026, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, fundraising directions, and trading volume and turnover rate, and also presents the issuance plan for the first quarter of 2026 and the upcoming week [1][3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Primary Market Issuance Situation - Net Financing: This week, local bonds issued 2564 billion yuan in total, with a net financing of 1904 billion yuan, a net financing increase of 2118 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance includes 125 billion yuan of new general bonds, 1272 billion yuan of new special bonds, 211 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 956 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. Next week, the planned issuance of local bonds is 2725 billion yuan, with a repayment of 173 billion yuan, and a net financing of 2552 billion yuan, a net financing increase of 648 billion yuan compared to this week [1][3][9]. - Issuance Terms: This week, the issuance proportion of 30Y local bonds is the highest (51%), and the issuance proportion of 10Y and above is 96%, showing an increase compared to the previous issuance week. The issuance proportions of 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, and 30Y local bonds are 1%, 22%, 12%, 11%, and 51% respectively, with the issuance proportion of 30Y local bonds increasing significantly and that of 10Y local bonds decreasing by about 9 percentage points [1][13]. - Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds: This week, special refinancing bonds issued 1167 billion yuan. In 2026, 27 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 7959 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds, all of which are special bonds for replacing implicit debts. Among them, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Zhejiang have relatively large issuance volumes of 800 billion yuan, 573 billion yuan, and 564 billion yuan respectively. This week, 53 billion yuan of special special - purpose bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 1055 billion yuan of special special - purpose bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2026, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hunan issuing 151 billion yuan, 106 billion yuan, and 103 billion yuan respectively [2][15][20]. - Issuance Spreads: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local bonds is 19.7bp, widening compared to the previous issuance week. The 30Y local bonds have the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 23.4bp. The issuance spreads of 3Y, 10Y, and 30Y local bonds have all widened, while those of other - term local bonds have narrowed. This week, Ningxia, Liaoning, and Hebei have relatively high local bond issuance spreads, at 25.4bp, 22.7bp, and 22.4bp respectively [2][25]. - Fundraising Directions: As of the end of this week, since 2026, the fundraising of new special bonds has been mainly directed towards cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (32%), transportation infrastructure (18%), affordable housing projects (15%), social undertakings (11%), and land reserves (8%) [2][28][29]. - Issuance Plan: As of the end of this week, some regions have disclosed the issuance plan of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026. Considering the actual issuance scale in January and February, the total disclosed issuance scale for the first quarter is nearly 3 trillion yuan, with 9347 billion yuan in March. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter is 13916 billion yuan and 15647 billion yuan respectively [3][31]. 2. Secondary Market Situation - Secondary Spreads: This week, the secondary spread of 10Y local bonds is relatively high. Except for the narrowing of the secondary spreads of 5Y, 20Y, and 30Y local bonds, the secondary spreads of other - term local bonds have all widened. The secondary spread of 10Y local bonds reaches 15.9bp. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past 3 years, the historical quantile of the secondary spread of 7Y local bonds is relatively high, at 64%. Region - wise, the 7 - 10Y local bonds in each region have relatively high secondary spreads, and the secondary spreads of local bonds over 10Y in medium - level regions are also relatively high, exceeding 12bp [5][35]. - Trading Situation: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds have decreased compared to the previous issuance week. The turnover rate of Tibet's local bonds is relatively high. This week, the trading volume of local bonds reached 2390 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.42%. Among them, the trading volume of Guangdong's local bonds is large, reaching 231 billion yuan, and the turnover rate of Tibet's local bonds is relatively high, reaching 1.5% [5][39].