聚焦“盈利确定性”与“政策共振”

Overview - The report emphasizes "profit certainty" and "policy resonance" as key themes, indicating a shift in market dynamics from "expectation speculation" to "profit verification" as macro policies and corporate earnings reports converge in March [5][6]. Market Insights - The macro strategy team highlights that the market is currently pricing in a pause from the Federal Reserve in March, with the focus on domestic growth signals becoming clearer as the "Two Sessions" will reveal annual economic targets and fiscal details [5][6]. - The report anticipates that the Hong Kong stock market will likely experience a revaluation in March, driven by passive fund adjustments and a focus on the quality of free cash flow and ROE improvements by long-term institutional investors [5][6]. Key Variables for March - The report identifies three main variables to watch in March: 1. The effectiveness of policy implementation from the "Two Sessions," focusing on GDP growth targets and fiscal measures [6]. 2. Corporate earnings guidance and share buyback activities during the earnings season [6]. 3. The Federal Reserve's guidance on future interest rate cuts, particularly regarding the summer window [6]. Industry Allocation - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" focusing on sectors with profit certainty and policy resonance: 1. Internet and New Economy Growth: Emphasis on head internet platforms with low valuations and increased buyback activities, alongside AI applications and smart driving assets [7]. 2. Hard Technology and Overseas Manufacturing: Focus on high visibility in semiconductor processes and equipment, as well as resilient demand in engineering machinery and appliances [7]. 3. Global Pricing of Upstream Resources: Metals like gold, copper, and aluminum are highlighted as inflation hedges amid global manufacturing recovery [7]. 4. Low-Volatility Dividend Assets: Telecom operators and core hydropower assets are noted for their defensive value [7]. Company-Specific Insights - Cheung Kong Property Trust (778HK): Target price of 5.92 HKD with an 8.8% upside, driven by stable earnings and high dividend yield [10][11]. - NVIDIA (NVDAUS): Target price of 260 USD with a 40.6% upside, supported by strong demand for AI chips and a robust supply chain [13][15]. - Broadcom (AVGOUS): Target price of 460 USD with a 43.0% upside, driven by anticipated growth in AI revenue [23][25]. - Xpeng Motors (9868HK): Target price of 134.69 HKD with a 97.1% upside, driven by new vehicle launches and overseas expansion [30][35]. - Sihuan Pharmaceutical (2096HK): Target price of 16.40 HKD with a 32.3% upside, supported by new product launches and strong revenue growth [37][39]. - Pop Mart (9992HK): Target price of 401.60 HKD with a 74.8% upside, focusing on IP platform strategy and overseas market growth [43][45]. - China Resources Power (836HK): Target price of 21.50 HKD with a 12.7% upside, driven by renewable energy growth and stable dividend yield [48][50].