2026年两会专题之会议前瞻

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 Two Sessions will focus on economic development and macro - policy frameworks. The government will continue to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to promote high - quality development. The national GDP growth target may be set in the range of 4.5% - 5%, the CPI target is likely to remain around 2%, and the urban survey unemployment rate is expected to stay around 5.5%. The policies in key fields such as real estate, monetary, and fiscal policies will continue to be optimized and adjusted to support economic growth [2][11][12][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Two Sessions: Key Concerns - Topics and Schedules - Main Topics: The Government Work Report will cover annual economic development and macro - policy frameworks, including GDP growth targets, fiscal and monetary policy orientations and specific numerical targets, key work and industrial plans for the year. The "15th Five - Year Plan" outline will also be reviewed and passed [5]. - Important Schedules: The CPPCC meeting will be held on March 4, 2026, and the NPC meeting will start on March 5. The Government Work Report will be released on the morning of March 5. There will be three press conferences on economy, diplomacy, and people's livelihood, as well as "Representative Channels" and "Minister Channels". The General Secretary's participation in the deliberation of delegations is also an important focus [7][8][9]. 3.2 Main Economic Growth Target Expectations - GDP Growth: The national GDP growth target may be set in the range of 4.5% - 5%, slightly lower than the actual 5% in 2025, reflecting a steady and prudent tone [11]. - CPI Target: The CPI target is likely to remain around 2%, aiming to promote a reasonable recovery of prices, improve corporate profits and tax revenues [12]. - Urban Survey Unemployment Rate: It is expected to be set around 5.5%, the same as in 2025, highlighting the priority of stabilizing employment [14]. 3.3 Key Area Policy Orientations - Monetary Policy: In 2026, the moderately loose monetary policy will continue. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, with an expected 1 - 2 reserve requirement ratio cuts and 10 - 20 basis points of interest rate cuts. Structural tools are more likely to be implemented, and the central bank will flexibly conduct treasury bond trading operations [16]. - Fiscal Policy: The fiscal policy will be more proactive, with a moderate increase in the total amount and optimization of the structure. The narrow - sense deficit rate is expected to remain at 4%, and the total scale of new government debt is expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan, an increase from 2025 [19][20][21]. - Real Estate Policy: The real estate policy will continue the recent tone, with a combination of bottom - support and high - quality development. The Two Sessions are expected to continue to stabilize the real estate market through city - specific policies, and focus on urban renewal and the construction of "good houses" [24][25][26]. - Key Tasks: The Two Sessions will continue to strongly support domestic demand and science and technology. The government will promote consumption and investment to expand domestic demand, and continue to support new - quality productivity in the field of science and technology [28][29].