KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-03-02 13:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that BYD's overseas sales have surpassed domestic sales for the first time, indicating strong performance in international markets [4] - The company is expected to launch new technologies and models in 2026, enhancing its competitive edge in a challenging domestic market [5] - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 25.3, 18.6, and 14.7 times respectively, driven by overseas business growth [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 602.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,126.6 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.9% [6] - Net profit is expected to increase from 30.04 billion yuan in 2023 to 60.14 billion yuan in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 36.3% in 2026 [6] - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 20% by 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve from 5.0% in 2023 to 5.3% in 2027 [6] Sales Performance - In February 2026, BYD's sales reached 190,200 units, a decrease of 41.1% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of the Spring Festival [4] - The overseas sales in February were 100,600 units, marking a 50.1% increase year-on-year, and accounted for 52.9% of total sales [4] - For the first two months of 2026, cumulative sales were 400,200 units, down 35.8% year-on-year, largely due to the reduction in subsidies for vehicle replacements [4] Overseas Expansion - BYD aims to achieve over 1.3 million overseas sales in 2026, a 24.3% increase from the previous year, supported by a multi-faceted approach in product, channel, logistics, and production capacity [4] - The company has established over 2,000 overseas dealerships and plans to expand further into Europe and other regions [4] - The logistics capacity is set to exceed one million vehicles annually, with production facilities in Thailand and Brazil already operational, and Hungary expected to start production in 2026 [4]