Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-03-02 13:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for key companies in the transportation sector, including East China Airlines Logistics, SF Holding, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [2][3]. Core Insights - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is evolving towards full-scale conflict, which is expected to drive up oil and shipping prices due to increased risk premiums and potential supply disruptions [7][28]. - The Spring Festival period saw a significant increase in passenger traffic and ticket prices in the civil aviation sector, suggesting a recovery in domestic demand [7][50]. - The adjustment of U.S. tariff policies may lead to improved export performance for Chinese goods to the U.S., enhancing cross-border transportation demand [63]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, is expected to raise oil prices significantly, with Brent crude risk premiums potentially reaching $7-13 per barrel [28][31]. - Historical analysis shows that previous conflicts have led to substantial increases in oil prices and shipping rates, indicating a pattern that may repeat [10][13]. Aviation Sector - During the Spring Festival (February 15-23), the average daily passenger volume reached 2.449 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, with average ticket prices rising by 6.6% [7][50]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring ticket price performance as the industry enters a seasonal lull, with expectations of continued demand recovery [59]. Air Cargo - Air cargo rates have shown a year-on-year increase, with the Shanghai Pudong Airport export rate index rising by 7.4% [63]. - The utilization rates of major cargo airlines have decreased due to the Spring Festival, but there is optimism for recovery in demand post-holiday [65][68].