流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题：3月资金面关注什么？

Group 1 - The report highlights that the net financing scale of government bonds in March is expected to be around 1.20 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from 1.42 trillion yuan in February [5][8] - Factors supporting liquidity in March include significant fiscal spending typical of quarter-end and faster government bond supply in January-February compared to the same period in 2025 [5][8] - Potential pressures on liquidity include a surge in the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit amounting to 3.59 trillion yuan, concentrated in the middle two weeks of the month [5][8] Group 2 - The report indicates that the preliminary quota for local government bonds in 2026 is gradually being announced, with a total of 2.79 trillion yuan for the early batch in 2025, which is expected to be 3.12 trillion yuan for 2026 based on the 60% rule [5][14] - As of March 8, 2026, the cumulative issuance of local bonds is expected to reach 22.941 billion yuan, with adjustments in March issuance plans leading to a projected scale of 8.541 billion yuan [5][14] - The report notes that the short-term market concerns regarding supply have significantly decreased, and if the new local bond quota announced during the Two Sessions exceeds market expectations, supply concerns may resurface [5][14] Group 3 - The report mentions that the liquidity in the secondary market for short-term bonds (3 years and below) remains good, with the 1-year local bonds showing almost no yield spread compared to government bonds [5][15] - The report identifies key bonds to watch in various maturities, including 5Y, 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, and 30Y local bonds, indicating specific bonds for potential investment [5][16] - The report suggests that the absolute yield level of 30Y local bonds may become attractive if it rises to 2.50% or above [5][43]