2026年一季度经济与市场展望：从价格（结构）的确定性看资产变化

Group 1: Long-term Interest Rates - The primary factor influencing long-term interest rates over the past year has been the term premium[10] - The current level of the term premium is expected to revert to the historical lower bound of 30-40 basis points (BP)[10] - The market is focused on whether the term premium can return to a neutral level of 60-70 BP[10] Group 2: Stock and Earnings Analysis - Stock prices can be decomposed into Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratios and Earnings Per Share (EPS)[15] - The PE ratio is currently at a near ten-year high, raising concerns about potential declines[15] - EPS appears to have reached a bottom, with market attention on its potential recovery[15] Group 3: Price Index Changes - The average year-on-year Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to be slightly above zero at 0.05%[32] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is also expected to be slightly above historical averages at 0.05%[32] - Geopolitical conflicts are anticipated to raise oil prices by an average of 10% per month from March to May, increasing CPI by approximately 0.1% and PPI by about 0.2%[32] Group 4: Demand and Supply Factors - The demand for real estate is supported by a stable population of first-time buyers and an increasing number of improvement-demanding individuals[52] - Infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize, with government policies aimed at maintaining investment levels throughout 2026[61] - The PPI is identified as a major variable affecting corporate profitability, with the PPI-CPI differential reflecting the relationship between corporate earnings and costs[24]