Guohai Securities·2026-03-02 14:33Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) [1] Core Insights - The smartphone and IoT business are expected to face short-term pressure, with adjusted profits projected to decline year-on-year in Q4 2025 [2] - Xiaomi Group's revenue for Q4 2025 is anticipated to be CNY 116.4 billion, representing a 7% year-on-year growth, despite declines in smartphone and IoT revenues [5][6] - The electric vehicle segment is projected to see significant growth, with revenues expected to reach CNY 38 billion, a 133% increase year-on-year [7] Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts for Xiaomi Group from 2025 to 2027 are as follows: - 2025: Revenue of CNY 455.6 billion, adjusted net profit of CNY 39.1 billion - 2026: Revenue of CNY 546.1 billion, adjusted net profit of CNY 42.7 billion - 2027: Revenue of CNY 643.1 billion, adjusted net profit of CNY 55 billion - Corresponding adjusted P/E ratios are projected to be 19.5x for 2025, 17.8x for 2026, and 13.9x for 2027 [7][10][11] Business Segment Analysis - Smartphone Business: Expected revenue of CNY 45.2 billion in Q4 2025, a 12% decline year-on-year, with a gross margin of approximately 8.3% [6] - IoT and Consumer Products: Anticipated revenue of CNY 23.3 billion in Q4 2025, a 25% decline year-on-year, with a gross margin of around 20% [6] - Electric Vehicle Business: Projected revenue of CNY 38 billion in Q4 2025, driven by an expected delivery of approximately 150,000 vehicles [7]