猪价触及前低，去产能逻辑强化：农林牧渔

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][76]. Core Insights - The pig price has reached a previous low, and the logic of capacity reduction is strengthening. As of February 27, the pig price dropped to 10.84 yuan/kg, hitting a low not seen since October 2025. The profitability of breeding has rapidly narrowed, with self-breeding and purchased piglet profits at -159.65 and 20.83 yuan/head respectively [2][10][30]. - The post-holiday slaughter volume is recovering from a low level, with daily slaughter volume increasing from 92,000 heads to 123,500 heads between February 23-27, although still significantly below pre-holiday levels [2][13]. - The average weight of pigs has increased post-holiday, with the average weight at 127.73 kg as of February 27, up by 1.68 kg week-on-week [20][30]. - In the beef sector, prices for fattened bulls and calves remained stable at 25.74 yuan/kg and 33.81 yuan/kg respectively as of February 27, with a long-term upward trend expected due to tightening supply [33]. - The raw milk price is currently at a low of 3.04 yuan/kg, with ongoing capacity reduction expected to stabilize prices in the future [34]. - In the poultry sector, the price of white feathered chickens has decreased to 7.47 yuan/kg, while chick prices have risen to 2.87 yuan each due to limited supply [41][47]. - The 2026 No. 1 Document emphasizes the promotion of biological breeding industrialization, which is expected to benefit leading seed companies [55]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The pig price has dropped significantly, leading to reduced profitability for breeders. The industry is experiencing a recovery in slaughter volume, but it remains low compared to pre-holiday levels. The average weight of pigs has increased, indicating a potential supply pressure in the future [2][10][30][13][20][30]. Beef Industry - Beef prices have stabilized post-holiday, with expectations of a long-term upward trend due to reduced supply from the breeding herd. Import restrictions on beef are also expected to support price increases [33]. Dairy Industry - Raw milk prices are at a low point, with ongoing capacity reductions likely to lead to a stabilization and potential increase in prices in the future [34]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing price declines for meat while chick prices are rising due to supply constraints. The impact of avian influenza on imports is also a concern [41][47]. Seed Industry - The recent policy document highlights the importance of biological breeding, which is expected to accelerate the development of the seed industry and benefit leading companies [55].