焦煤、焦炭日报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international coal market is currently strong, which is expected to support domestic coking coal prices. After the decline in the futures market, the current coking coal price has basically factored in existing negative factors, and the downward space is limited. It is not recommended to chase short positions. From a valuation perspective, the current valuation of coking coal is not high. Considering the risk - return ratio, one can try to go long at low prices, but should not be overly optimistic about the upside potential. In the medium term, it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and there is no trend - forming opportunity yet. Band trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - Futures Prices: For coking coal futures, JM01 was 1392.5 today, up 10.5 from yesterday; JM05 was 1094, up 0.5; JM09 was 1194.5, up 5.5. For coke futures, J01 was 1818, up 12; J05 was 1652, up 16.5; J09 was 1731, up 16.5 [4]. - Spot Prices: Low - sulfur main coking coal was 1570, unchanged; medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1270, unchanged; Mongolian 5 raw coal at the port was 1013, up 18; Mongolian 5 cleaned coal at the port was 1197, unchanged. For coke, port quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) was 1470, unchanged; port quasi - first - grade (dry - quenched) was 1680, unchanged [4]. - Warehouse Receipts: For coking coal, Shanxi coal warehouse receipts were 1190, unchanged; Mongolian 5 was 1166, up 21; Mongolian 3 was 1023, unchanged; Australian coal (port spot) was 1235, down 20. For coke, port spot (wet - quenched) warehouse receipts were 1581, unchanged; port spot (dry - quenched) were 1680, unchanged; Shanxi origin (wet - quenched) were 1600, unchanged; Shanxi origin (dry - quenched) were 1700, unchanged [4]. - Basis: Coking coal basis varied by contract and coal type. For example, for Shanxi coal, the 01 - contract basis was - 123, the 05 - contract basis was 96, and the 09 - contract basis was - 5. Coke basis also varied by contract and location [4]. - Transportation Prices: Transportation prices for coking coal and coke remained unchanged, such as the price from Jiexiu to Fengnan District was 140, unchanged [4]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Try to go long at low prices. In the medium term, expect wide - range fluctuations and recommend band trading [6]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7]. - Related Prices: Coke: Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) warehouse receipts were 1581 yuan/ton, Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade (dry - quenched) were 1680 yuan/ton, Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) were 1600 yuan/ton, Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade (dry - quenched) were 1700 yuan/ton. Coking coal: Shanxi coal warehouse receipts were 1190 yuan/ton, Mongolian 5 were 1166 yuan/ton, Mongolian 3 were 1023 yuan/ton, Australian coal (port spot) were 1235 yuan/ton [8]. - Important Information - The Mongolian imported coking coal market was weak. The market was characterized by "loose supply and weak demand recovery". Coking enterprises were mainly digesting inventory, and the restocking demand was moderate. The port inventory had reached 425 tons, and the sales pressure on traders increased, but the electronic auction sentiment in Mongolia was still relatively positive [9]. - The Yangtze River port market for thermal coal was stable. After the Spring Festival, the downstream resumption of work was slow, the acceptance of prices by rigid demand was average, the market liquidity was poor, and the price increase was weak. The inventory at the Yangtze Estuary had reached a high level, and there was a possibility of price decline. The current price of CV5000 at the Yangtze Estuary was 690 - 710 yuan [9]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends of coking coal and coke over the years, such as the coke comprehensive absolute price index, Mongolian 5 cleaned coal price, coking coal basis, etc. [11][13][15]