债券研究周报：两会前，债市情绪转为谨慎-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From February 24 to March 2, the bond market experienced a significant adjustment, causing the sentiment indices of both sellers and buyers to decline, with the buyer sentiment dropping more [4]. - The future developments of real estate and inflation need further observation. There are potential opportunities arising from expectation gaps, and the bond market may rise during the Two Sessions. It is advisable to make arrangements during market adjustments [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index: Declined from February 24 to March 2 - The unweighted sentiment index from February 24 to March 2 was 0.1429, a decrease of 0.18 compared to February 10 - 24. Some institutions' views turned neutral, and the overall view is neutral - bullish. Among 30 institutions, 5 are bullish, 22 are neutral, and 1 is bearish [12]. - 18% of institutions are bullish, believing there may be trend - following opportunities in the bond market in Q2, significant allocation may occur in March, and it's advisable to allocate during adjustments. The recent significant appreciation of the RMB is favorable to the Chinese bond market, and interest rate cuts can be expected in the next two to three months [12]. - 79% of institutions are neutral, stating that the stock - bond seesaw effect will strengthen in March, market sentiment is relatively cautious, the winning probability of the bond market will increase after the Two Sessions, but further interest rate decline requires central bank rate cuts. The 10 - year Treasury bond may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.9% [12]. - 4% of institutions are bearish, suggesting that if inflation continues to rise, the capital trend may tighten, and the emergence of broad - money expectations in the market may be a selling point for bonds [12]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index: Declined from February 24 to March 2 - The unweighted sentiment index from February 24 to March 2 was - 0.046, a decrease of 0.23 compared to February 10 - 24. The sentiment index dropped significantly, and the overall view is neutral - bearish. Among 22 institutions, 5 are bullish, 11 are neutral, and 6 are bearish [13]. - 23% of institutions are bullish, believing that the reduction of US Treasury bond funds in the market is beneficial to Chinese bonds. The geopolitical event between the US and Iran has reduced market risk appetite, which is favorable to the bond market. Historically, the bond market mostly declines after the Two Sessions [13]. - 50% of institutions are neutral, stating that the yields of medium - and short - term bonds will remain low and fluctuate under the expectation of loose funds, while the yields of long - term bonds will fluctuate upward and still face adjustment pressure. The profit - taking sentiment in the market has eased, and interest rates have declined, but the volatile pattern may continue [13]. - 27% of institutions are bearish, believing that the bond market sentiment weakened significantly this week, bearish sentiment intensified, the trading volume and activity of the forfaiting market in March are expected to increase significantly compared to January - February, and market interest rates also have some upward space [13].