欧洲银行体系中的风险传播：非银行金融机构和市场风险的放大效应（英）2026

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The study investigates the impact of Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) and financial market pressures on interbank contagion risk, highlighting that strong capital and liquidity buffers in banks can significantly reduce contagion risk through interbank exposures. In contrast, pressures from NBFIs amplify systemic risk during heightened market volatility [4][8][26]. - The findings emphasize the need to integrate contagion models into systemic stress testing and to design macroprudential policies that encompass the entire financial ecosystem, considering the amplification risks posed by banks' exposures to NBFIs [4][26]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction discusses the increasing complexity of risk transmission within the financial system as non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) expand their operations, necessitating a better understanding of how risks migrate from outside the banking system to banks and propagate through interbank networks [12][14]. Data - The analysis utilizes regulatory data from the European Central Bank (ECB) to construct an interbank network, focusing on large exposure reports. The dataset includes 72 significant financial institutions representing approximately 90% of the total assets in the Eurozone banking system [34][35]. Model - The contagion model is based on the CoMap framework, which assesses and quantifies the chain reactions of hypothetical defaults within the interbank exposure network. It captures the impact of a bank's default on its counterparties through credit risk and funding disruption channels [39][40]. Results - The baseline analysis indicates that under normal conditions, the contagion risk from direct and indirect interbank exposures remains limited due to robust capital and liquidity buffers. However, significant heterogeneity in systemic risk characteristics is observed among different banking business models [17][21]. - In stress scenarios, the analysis reveals that the potential for systemic risk amplification increases significantly when shocks originate from NBFIs or are exacerbated by market volatility, leading to substantial capital losses across the banking system [20][21][26]. Policy Implications - The results underscore the importance of macroprudential regulation that considers the interconnectedness between banks and NBFIs, as well as the systemic risks posed by market shocks. It advocates for a comprehensive approach to monitoring and managing risks within the financial ecosystem [26][27].