观点全追踪（3月第2期）：晨会精选-20260303

Group 1: Market Strategy - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to underperform due to an upcoming peak in lock-up expirations, with significant unlocks in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, tea beverages, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, amounting to HKD 87.2 billion, which is higher than the previous peak at the end of last year [2] - The deadline for annual report disclosures for Hong Kong companies is approaching, which may exert downward pressure on performance, as companies with fiscal years aligned with the calendar year must announce preliminary results by March 31 [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of military conflicts, are noted as a secondary factor affecting market sentiment, although the overall impact on the Hong Kong market may be limited due to a general strengthening of non-US assets [2] Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - The report discusses the factors driving the appreciation of the Renminbi since 2026, identifying three key realities: a resurgence of de-dollarization narratives, a high proportion of trade surplus turning into income at approximately 77.6%, and a rebound in domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) alongside a strong stock market opening [2] - The report references a previous analysis that outlined four key reasons for the accelerated appreciation of the Renminbi, emphasizing the importance of the central parity signal and the release of foreign exchange settlements as ongoing factors [2]