全球五大航运巨头集体封航

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. This has led to increased market volatility, with risk - averse assets such as gold and the US dollar rising, and stock markets showing mixed trends. - Commodity prices are also highly influenced by the geopolitical situation. Energy prices have soared, and different commodities have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical impacts. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.4, higher than the expected 51.8. The Middle East situation led to increased risk - averse sentiment, pushing up the prices of the US dollar and gold. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations decreased, and US bond yields rose nearly 10bp. Gold is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, while silver is weaker [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement on the Iran war did not set a time frame, and the market risk - averse sentiment recovered, causing the US dollar index to continue rising. It is recommended to be bullish on the US dollar in the short term [16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 2 - month manufacturing PMI continued to expand for two months, but the input price index soared. The Middle East geopolitical risk led to market inflation concerns, and the US stock market was expected to be volatile and weak. It is recommended to wait and see [19][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - share trading volume increased and was differentiated, with the turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan. Affected by the war between the US, Israel, and Iran, oil, gas, and military stocks rose, supporting the index. It is recommended to reduce long - position strategies in stock index futures and wait for the situation of the Iran war to become clear [23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 19 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The prices of precious metals and chemicals rose, and the market's expectation of reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts during the Two Sessions increased slightly, causing treasury bond futures to rise. It is expected that the bond market will be volatile before the Two Sessions and that the impact of supply shocks after the sessions needs to be noted [25][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in February decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The sales of heavy - duty trucks in February decreased compared with the previous year. Black metals continued to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and it is recommended to view steel prices from a volatile perspective in the short term [28][30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market was weakly stable. After the Spring Festival, the supply recovered quickly, but the terminal demand had not started significantly. The market was in a volatile pattern, and the policy changes around the Two Sessions and the downstream resumption of work rhythm need to be noted [32][33]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in the Ordos region was strong, with prices rising slightly. The port price was expected to continue rising, but the high inventory of power plants restricted the upward elasticity of coal prices. The short - term coal price was expected to be strong [34][35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The terminal demand was slowly recovering, but the iron - making water recovery speed was expected to be slow due to inventory pressure. The supply was at a high level, and the impact of the Middle East conflict on Iranian iron ore production and sales was uncertain. The iron ore price was expected to continue in a volatile market [36][37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased. Market institutions lowered the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans. The US weekly export inspection was better than expected. The soybean meal futures price was expected to be volatile, and the purchase of US soybeans, import policies, and reserve dynamics in China need to be continued to be monitored [38][40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil inventory increased. The palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in February. The rise in the oil market was mainly affected by the external market. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking amplitude of palm oil, the impact of Australian rapeseed on rapeseed oil, and the final RFS rule of the US in March for soybean oil [41][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The national average corn price was generally strong. The low inventory of ports, slow release of farmers' selling pressure, and tight supply of high - quality corn in the Northeast provided support for prices. However, the risk of concentrated selling of ground - stored corn in the Northeast, weak demand from the breeding and deep - processing industries, and potential wheat auctions may suppress prices. It is recommended to trade according to the trend and not to chase high prices [44][45]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The net short position of US sugar decreased for the first time in four weeks. The sugar production in India and Thailand was lower than expected. The sugar production in Guangxi was delayed. The domestic sugar market was expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [46][51]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The key copper export route in the Congo was interrupted due to a bridge collapse. The copper price was affected by the complex Middle East situation and short - term fundamental concerns. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips in the medium term [52][54]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The profit of SQM in the fourth quarter increased. The production of lithium carbonate in March was expected to increase, and the demand also showed a high - growth trend. However, there were potential risks in the power battery demand. It is recommended to be bullish in the short term and pay attention to price corrections after the supply increases in the medium term [55][57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread was at a discount, and the domestic lead inventory decreased slightly. The lead price was expected to rebound from a low level, and it is recommended to consider mid - term long positions [58][60]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - to - 3 - month spread was at a discount, and the domestic zinc inventory increased. The zinc price was affected by the rise in natural gas and European electricity prices. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions, hold existing long positions, and consider taking profits on rallies [61][62]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The global tin market was in a long - term structural tight - balance. The supply was restricted by various factors, and the demand was driven by emerging industries. The short - term price was affected by high inventory, and it is recommended to pay attention to macro and supply - side news [63][65]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US will take measures to ease the rise in oil prices. The statements of the US and Iran on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz were inconsistent. The oil price was expected to have a high upward risk before the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal passage [66][68]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Qatar's energy facilities were attacked, and the production of liquefied natural gas was suspended. The LPG market was expected to be highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [69][71]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventories increased. The asphalt price was mainly driven by geopolitical risks and crude oil costs. The short - term price was expected to follow the trend of crude oil, and the development of the US - Iran situation and OPEC+ production policies need to be monitored [72][73]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The RCF tender was completed. The domestic urea supply was abundant, and the demand was increasing. The market was optimistic about the spring - plowing season, but policy intervention may occur if the price rises too fast. It is recommended to replenish inventory according to actual needs and view the futures market from a volatile perspective [74][75]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price was slightly lower. The supply was at a high level, and the demand recovery needed time. The market was expected to be in a volatile pattern, with a bias towards strength under geopolitical conflicts [76][77]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong was stable. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand support was limited in the short term. The caustic soda market was expected to be in a low - level and weak - volatile pattern [78][80]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports increased. The rise in the styrene price was mainly due to the increase in crude oil prices. The supply and demand of styrene were expected to improve marginally, and it is recommended to pay attention to the intensity of the conflict and potential credit risks [81][83]. 3.2.21 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Five major global shipping giants suspended shipping. The Middle East geopolitical situation led to a full - contract limit - up of European - route futures. The current rise in the market was mainly driven by sentiment, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment turns [84][85].