南苏丹公共财政评论：一条狭窄的复苏之路：恢复公共财政的关键作用（英）2026

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - South Sudan's development has regressed since independence, reflecting a significant imbalance between its rich oil resources and persistent institutional capacity and human capital gaps [27] - The economy has collapsed since 2011, with per capita GDP plummeting by 76%, highlighting severe mismanagement of oil wealth and ongoing internal conflicts [28] - The public finance review aims to address how South Sudan can utilize its public resources to reverse its current development trajectory and move towards sustainable development [29] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - South Sudan remains trapped in a humanitarian and macroeconomic crisis, failing to leverage its natural resources for sustainable development, resulting in extreme poverty [54] - The country has a high dependency on oil, which constitutes 90% of government revenue, yet it has not supported development effectively [54] 2. Macroeconomic Framework - The economy is significantly smaller than at independence due to external shocks and structural deficiencies [70] - Weak governance has undermined fiscal policy, exacerbating macroeconomic instability, while monetary policy has been ineffective due to fiscal dominance [30] 3. Revenue - Oil revenue management is severely compromised by governance failures, with significant challenges in transparency and accountability [34] - Non-oil revenue is among the lowest globally, averaging less than 4% of GDP over the past decade, indicating structural barriers to revenue generation [39] 4. Expenditure - Public spending is high but poorly allocated, failing to improve human development outcomes, with significant funds directed towards administration and defense rather than essential services [41] - Capital expenditure is low and volatile, primarily driven by "oil-for-infrastructure" schemes, leading to inefficiencies and inadequate service delivery [44] 5. Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need for urgent reforms in public financial management to ensure effective and transparent use of public resources [57] - Specific immediate actions are proposed to establish a commitment to reform and secure support from development partners [50]