塑料L及PP：国际油价支撑转强

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The chemical M&A market showed signs of increased activity at the end of 2025, and the industry valuation is gradually stabilizing, with a slight recovery expected in 2026. Sustainable development remains the core focus of the industry, and market attention to new basic chemical technologies continues to rise [1]. - The prosperity of the chemical industry is closely related to global economic growth and raw material costs, both of which currently suppress corporate revenues and profits [1]. - The global refined oil demand will enter the end of growth during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, and the refining and refined oil industry chain in China will enter the "acceleration period of transformation" ahead of the world [9]. Summary by Directory Market Situation - 26 - 03 - 03: L主力2605合约报收6996点，上涨+5点或+0.07%，LLDPE市场价格宽幅上涨，贸易商随行报涨，下游采购积极；PP主力2605合约报收7038点，上涨+40点或+0.57%，受原油成本支撑，企业上调出厂报价，贸易商跟涨，下游追涨接货意愿积极 [1]. - 26 - 03 - 02: L主力2605合约报收6633点，上涨+36点或+0.55%，LLDPE市场价格涨跌互现，部分贸易商出货，部分封盘惜售，下游刚需拿货；PP主力2605合约报收6641点，上涨+30点或+0.45%，国内PP市场价格重心窄幅盘整，午后贸易商封盘，成交有限 [5]. - 26 - 02 - 27: L主力2605合约报收6604点，下跌 - 64点或 - 0.96%，LLDPE市场价格小幅下跌，贸易商让利出货，成交不及昨日；PP主力2605合约报收6605点，下跌 - 70点或 - 1.05%，国内PP市场部分弱调，下游询盘有限，交投平平 [9]. - 26 - 02 - 26: L主力2605合约报收6758点，下跌 - 19点或 - 0.28%，LLDPE市场价格部分上涨，下游谨慎观望，实盘小单成交；PP主力2605合约报收6734点，上涨+14点或+0.21%，国内PP市场部分仍有上涨，下游询盘氛围偏弱，成交侧重低价 [13]. - 26 - 02 - 25: L主力2605合约报收6826点，上涨+6点或+0.09%，LLDPE市场价格部分上涨，部分下游采买原料；PP主力2605合约报收6747点，上涨+1点或+0.01%，假期原油价格上涨，下游逐步复工，择低补货 [17]. - 26 - 02 - 24: L主力2605合约报收6644点，下跌 - 90点或 - 1.34%，LLDPE市场价格横盘整理，有价无市；PP主力2605合约报收6568点，下跌 - 80点或 - 1.20%，节前国内PP市场价格变动不大，成交零星 [20]. Important Information - 26 - 03 - 03: An international investment bank report shows that the chemical M&A market is expected to recover slightly in 2026, and sustainable development is the core focus [1]. - 26 - 03 - 02: The US and Israel launched a "pre - emptive" military strike against Iran on February 28, and Iran retaliated, affecting many Middle - Eastern countries [5]. - 26 - 02 - 27: Global refined oil demand will enter the end of growth during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, and China's refining industry will enter the "acceleration period of transformation" [9]. - 26 - 02 - 26: The Yanchang Petroleum 10 million tons/year refining and chemical integration transformation and upgrading project in Yan'an, with a total investment of 80.29 billion yuan, has completed preliminary preparations and is reported to the State Council for approval [13]. - 26 - 02 - 25: In 2025, the petrochemical industry achieved stable progress, with stable production of major energy and chemicals, but a decline in investment and total import - export trade [17]. - 26 - 02 - 24: The EU's Waste Technical Adaptation Committee for the "Directive on Single - Use Plastics" approved a draft implementation act, adjusting the accounting rules for recycled PET in plastic beverage bottles [20]. Logical Analysis - 26 - 03 - 03: In February, the US economic policy uncertainty index rose to 361.3 points, up +9.5% year - on - year, benefiting the energy sector; Brent oil prices rose for two consecutive months to $69.6/barrel, down - 7.4% year - on - year, benefiting PP; domestic PP port inventories increased for three consecutive months to 74,500 tons, up +4.4% year - on - year, with narrowing growth, benefiting PP [2]. - 26 - 03 - 02: In January, domestic M1 increased by +4.9% year - on - year, M2 increased by +9.0% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap was - 4.1%, slightly benefiting commodities. As of last Friday, the registered warehouse receipts of the DCE L contract remained at 9,400 lots, up +74.1% year - on - year; the PP contract registered warehouse receipts increased by +4.1% to 21,500 lots, up +138.0% year - on - year. Since February, PP port inventories have increased for three consecutive months to 74,500 tons, up +4.4% year - on - year, with narrowing growth, slightly benefiting PP [6]. - 26 - 02 - 27: In February, the ZEW global auto industry index dropped to - 7.2 points, slightly negative for commodities. In December 2025, the total domestic raw salt import - export volume was $49 million, down - 46.0% year - on - year, with expanding decline for nine consecutive months, negative for the chemical sector. The weekly maintenance loss of domestic LLDPE increased to 27,800 tons, with a 4 - week cumulative of 95,700 tons, up +15.7% year - on - year, with narrowing growth for three consecutive weeks; the weekly maintenance loss of domestic PP increased for three consecutive weeks to 178,500 tons, with a 4 - week cumulative of 705,200 tons, up +23.2% year - on - year, with narrowing growth for four consecutive weeks [10]. - 26 - 02 - 26: The same as the logical analysis on 26 - 02 - 27 [14]. - 26 - 02 - 25: In December 2025, new orders for US automobiles and auto parts increased to $67.98 billion, up +11.4% year - on - year, with the highest growth in 35 months, benefiting commodities. In January, the average volatility index of the Dow Jones Industrial Index (VXD) rose to 14.97 points, up +2.8% year - on - year, with marginal decline for eight consecutive months, benefiting the chemical sector. In January, the monthly maintenance loss of LLDPE increased to 134,000 tons, and that of PP increased for two consecutive months to 822,000 tons, with a ratio of 0.163, indicating L is stronger [18]. - 26 - 02 - 24: As of the Spring Festival, the registered warehouse receipts of the DCE L contract remained at 9,400 tons, up +43.2% year - on - year; the DCE PP contract registered warehouse receipts increased by +6.6% to 18,700 tons, up +94.2% year - on - year. In January, the monthly maintenance loss of LLDPE increased to 134,000 tons, up +37.1% year - on - year, with expanding growth, benefiting L [21]. Trading Strategies - 26 - 03 - 03: For the L 2605 contract, hold long positions and raise the stop - loss to 6860 points; for the PP 2605 contract, buy a small amount on the rise and set the stop - loss at 6960 points. For the SPC L2605&PP2605 contract, try short positions and set the stop - loss at +21 points. Keep an eye on options [2]. - 26 - 03 - 02: For the L 2605 contract, try long positions and set the stop - loss at 6550 points; for the PP 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines. Keep an eye on arbitrage and options [6]. - 26 - 02 - 27: For the L 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines; for the PP 2605 contract, hold short positions and lower the stop - loss to 6700 points. Keep an eye on arbitrage and options [10]. - 26 - 02 - 26: The same as the trading strategy on 26 - 02 - 27 [14]. - 26 - 02 - 25: For the L 2605 contract, try long positions and set the stop - loss at 6700 points; for the PP 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the pressure at 6770 points. Keep an eye on arbitrage and options [18]. - 26 - 02 - 24: For the L 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the support at 6600 points; for the PP 2605 contract, try short positions and set the stop - loss at 6620 points. Keep an eye on arbitrage and options [21].