Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the international market, the expected decline in global cotton production in the 2026/27 season and the narrowing of the supply - demand pattern are expected to provide some support for US cotton prices, which in turn will drive up the domestic cotton prices. In the short term, the market has cooled down, and there is insufficient support for the upward movement of US cotton at the macro - level. In the medium to long term, the ICE US cotton futures price still has room to rise, but it will mainly fluctuate in the short term [11]. - In the domestic market, there are both bullish and bearish factors, but it is still worth looking forward to. In the medium to long term, there is still some room for the cotton price to rise, but there may be a slight short - term correction. The resonance between domestic and foreign cotton prices may increase [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The expected cotton production in the 2026/27 season is expected to decline year - on - year in the world, the US, and China. The global cotton production is expected to be 25.26 million tons, a 3.2% year - on - year decrease; the US cotton production is expected to be 2.96 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease; and China's cotton production is expected to be 6.97 million tons, an 8.6% year - on - year decrease [6]. - As of February 26, the national cotton inspection volume was 7.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 948,300 tons [6]. - The national cotton inspection volume was about 7.48 million tons, with Xinjiang's inspection volume at 7.1057 million tons as of February 26 [40]. - The sales rate and sales volume of lint cotton are much higher than the same period last year. As of February 12, 2026, the cotton sales volume was 4.991 million tons, and the sales rate was 67.40% [42]. Demand - After the Spring Festival, the operating load of textile enterprises has continued to recover. The inferred monthly cotton consumption based on inventory data remains at a relatively high level [7]. - In December, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear, and textiles in China were 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the cumulative retail sales from January to December were 1.5215 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [7]. - As of the week of February 27, the comprehensive load of yarn was 39.08%, a week - on - week increase of 14.3 percentage points; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 43.02%, a week - on - week increase of 23.85 percentage points [7]. - As of the week of February 27, the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 32.7%, a week - on - week increase of 10.35 percentage points; the load of all - cotton grey cloth was 30.25%, a week - on - week increase of 9.12 percentage points [7]. - US clothing retail sales remain strong. In December, the monthly retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories were $27.337 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% and a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [52]. - The operating rate of Vietnamese textile enterprises increased month - on - month. As of February 27, the weekly operating rate of Vietnam was 68.5%, a month - on - month increase of 8.5 percentage points [55]. Import and Export - The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton under the 1% tariff has continued to widen. As of February 26, the price difference was 3,798 yuan/ton, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [8]. - As of the week of February 12, the total US cotton export contract volume was 1.985 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 223,000 tons, and China's contract volume was 98,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93,000 tons [8]. - In December, the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was $13.412 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 10.19%; the cumulative export from January to December was $151.182 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [8]. - In December, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, reaching a new high in the year; the monthly import value of cotton yarn was 170,000 tons, reaching a new high in the same period in the past five years [70][75]. - The import cotton price index strengthened month - on - month. As of February 26, the price index of medium - grade imported cotton for 1% quota port pick - up price was 12,883 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.93% [83]. Inventory - The commercial cotton inventory decreased more than expected month - on - month. As of mid - February, China's commercial cotton inventory was 5.5037 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 285,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 177,400 tons [9]. - The raw material inventory of spinning enterprises decreased slightly, and the raw material inventory of weaving factories increased slightly, while the finished - product inventory gradually accumulated [9]. - As of the week of February 27, the comprehensive yarn inventory was 23.63 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 days; the comprehensive staple - fiber cloth inventory was 32.78 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 days [9]. - The US clothing wholesaler inventory increased month - on - month for two consecutive months. In December 2025, the US clothing and clothing accessories wholesaler inventory was $28.561 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.77% and a year - on - year increase of 2.31% [86]. Price - The center of the cotton spot price has significantly moved up. As of February 27, 2026, the cotton prices in China, Xinjiang, Henan, Shandong, and Zhejiang all increased month - on - month, with increases ranging from 4.76% to 6.81% [24]. - The cotton basis increased month - on - month. As of February 27, 2026, the basis was 1,318 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 209 yuan [26]. - The 5 - 9 spread of cotton increased month - on - month. As of February 27, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread was 0 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan [28]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton under the 1% tariff increased month - on - month. As of February 27, 2026, the price difference was 3,959 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 634 yuan [32]. - The closing price of cotton yarn and the price of pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn increased month - on - month. As of February 27, 2026, the closing price of cotton yarn was 21,245 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.71%; the price of pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn was 21,870 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.58% [34]. - The cotton yarn basis fluctuated and declined. As of February 27, 2026, the cotton yarn basis was 625 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 195 yuan [37]. Option - The historical volatility of cotton options has increased significantly [102].
棉花策略月报-20260303
Guang Da Qi Huo·2026-03-03 00:51