A股投资策略周报告：风险因素影响可控

Market Performance - The A-share market showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.98%, the CSI 300 rising by 1.08%, and the Wind All A Index up by 2.75% during the period from February 24 to February 27, 2026[23] - The cyclical sector outperformed with an average increase of 1.23%, driven by rising international oil prices and increased demand for precious metals due to geopolitical tensions[13] Geopolitical Impact - The recent US-Iran conflict on February 28 had a limited impact on the market, as it was largely priced in beforehand, with noticeable adjustments in high-valuation sectors like US tech stocks[18] - The conflict is expected to be short-term, with the US likely focusing on limited strikes rather than full occupation, and Iran's economy heavily reliant on oil exports, making long-term blockades impractical[18] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The US January CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, with core CPI dropping to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021, easing inflationary pressures and lowering the threshold for potential Fed rate cuts[20] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have increased, with a 63.79% probability of a cut in June and a 98% probability in July 2026[20] Investment Strategy - Focus on technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, particularly electronics, software, and communication services, as well as power equipment and defense industries, due to favorable policy signals from the upcoming "Two Sessions"[24] - Emphasis on boosting domestic demand, with the National Development and Reform Commission planning to enhance the effectiveness of new policies, including a special bond issuance of 625 billion yuan to support consumption[24] Risk Factors - Key risks include economic underperformance, industry-specific risks, exchange rate fluctuations, data inaccuracies, trade protectionism, global liquidity risks, and potential black swan events[39][40]