宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-03-03-20260303

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, an oscillating trend in the medium - term, and a strong performance intraday. The overall view is that it will operate strongly. The core logic is that geopolitical risks are disturbing, and the methanol market is running strongly. [1] - With the military attack by the US and Israel on Iran, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has rapidly increased. Iran has announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may lead to a significant increase in the premium of methanol. If the shipping lane is closed or methanol plants are damaged, the overseas methanol supply will face a shortage risk. Geopolitical factors have overshadowed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol in the short - term. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures will maintain a strong posture on Tuesday. [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2605 contract shows an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2605 contract shows an oscillating trend [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract shows a strong performance [1]. Core Logic - Geopolitical risks, specifically the military attack by the US and Israel on Iran and Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have increased the geopolitical risk in the Middle East. This has the potential to disrupt the transportation of methanol and cause a shortage in overseas supply, leading to a strong performance in the methanol market. [5]