国新国证期货早报-20260303

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 2, 2026 - Stock Indexes: A-share market had mixed performance. Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.47% to 4182.59, Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.20% to 14465.79, and ChiNext Index dropped 0.49% to 3294.16. The trading volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3.04 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 539.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day. CSI 300 index closed at 4728.67, up 18.02 [1][2]. - Futures Contracts - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke weighted index closed at 1660.8, up 22.9; Coking coal weighted index closed at 1113.5 yuan, up 12.8 [2][3]. - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar futures contract 2605 oscillated higher during the day and slightly lower at night. The global sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to be 184.4 million tons, a reduction of 2.3 million tons from the previous forecast, mainly due to the decrease in India's production forecast from 32.8 million tons to 30.2 million tons. The sugar consumption in 2025/26 is expected to be 177.7 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 6.7 million tons [4]. - Rubber: Shanghai rubber futures oscillated higher during the day and slightly higher at night. The EU passenger car market sales in January 2026 decreased 3.9% to 799,625 units [5]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1161.75 cents per bushel, down 0.71%. The US soybean export inspection volume was better than expected. In the domestic market, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2826 yuan per ton, down 0.25% [5]. - Live Pigs: The main live - pig contract LH2605 closed at 11220 yuan per ton, down 2.31%. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [5]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil futures rebounded for two consecutive days. The main contract P2605 closed at 8898, up 1.34%. The Malaysian palm oil production in February 2026 decreased, and the export volume also decreased [5]. - Other Futures - Copper: Shanghai copper main contract opened at 104,230, closed at 103,850. The spot copper was in a discount pattern [7]. - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15175 yuan per ton at night, and the inventory increased [7]. - Log: The log 2605 main contract opened and closed at 800, with a daily position increase of 811 lots [7]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore 2605 main contract rose 0.87% to 754.5 yuan. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend [8]. - Asphalt: The asphalt 2604 main contract rose 5.98% to 3529 yuan. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate [8]. - Steel: The rb2605 closed at 3067 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3219 yuan per ton. The steel price may oscillate slightly stronger [8]. - Alumina: The ao2605 closed at 2773 yuan per ton. The alumina supply surplus situation remains, and there is pressure on the price [8]. - Aluminum: The al2604 closed at 24431 yuan per ton. The aluminum market is affected by geopolitical factors, with supply running smoothly and demand improving [9]. 2. Core Views - Stock Market: The A - share market showed a mixed trend on March 2, 2026, with significant trading volume expansion [1]. - Futures Market - Coke and Coking Coal: The prices of coke and coking coal futures rose. The production and demand of coke have changed, and the coking coal spot market was weak in February [2][3][4]. - Agricultural Products: The prices of sugar, rubber, soybean meal, and palm oil futures were affected by various factors such as geopolitics, production, and demand. The live - pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [4][5]. - Industrial Metals: The prices of copper, aluminum, and iron ore futures were influenced by factors like supply, demand, and geopolitics. The steel and asphalt prices are expected to oscillate, and the alumina price has an upper - limit pressure [7][8][9].