能源化工日报-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply disruption. Considering the expected over - production of Venezuela and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the main operation idea should be mid - term layout, waiting for the end of the geopolitical event to eliminate tail risks [4]. - For methanol, the downward momentum remains, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [7]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected recovery of production at the end of January, bearish fundamentals are approaching, so it is recommended to short [9]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade short - term according to the stronger market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season, and the export tax rebate cancellation has led to short - term rush exports, which is the only short - term support [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. Wait for the profit to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [21]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has risen. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the futures market has been reduced. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand is expected to pick up seasonally [23]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026, and the downstream production start - up rate has a stronger seasonal rebound than in previous years. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. - For PX, currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many overhauls. In March, as PX enters the overhaul season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. It is recommended to follow crude oil and go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and there is still room for valuation to rise in the medium term. It is recommended to follow PX and crude oil and go long on dips [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction. However, due to the tense situation in Iran, there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage and de - stocking. It is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities on dips [34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: The INE main crude oil futures closed up 43.50 yuan/barrel, a rise of 8.98%, at 527.80 yuan/barrel. The related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 263.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 9.00%, at 3186.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 310.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.99%, at 3757.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed gasoline inventory increased by 0.12 million barrels to 11.02 million barrels, a 1.07% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.66 million barrels to 16.64 million barrels, a 4.15% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.54 million barrels to 5.46 million barrels, a 21.96% decrease; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.29 million barrels to 5.55 million barrels, a 4.93% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.95 million barrels to 6.59 million barrels, a 12.55% decrease; the overall refined oil inventory decreased by 1.99 million barrels to 45.27 million barrels, a 4.21% decrease [2][3]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply disruption. Considering the expected over - production of Venezuela and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the main operation idea should be mid - term layout, waiting for the end of the geopolitical event to eliminate tail risks [4]. Methanol - Market Information: Regional spot price changes: Jiangsu changed by 126 yuan/ton, Lunan by 60 yuan/ton, Henan by 55 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 45 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 176.00 yuan/ton, at 2365 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 171 yuan [6]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The downward momentum remains, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [7]. Urea - Market Information: Regional spot price changes: Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at 3 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 30 yuan/ton, at 1817 yuan/ton [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected recovery of production at the end of January, bearish fundamentals are approaching, so it is recommended to short [9]. Rubber - Market Information: Due to the conflict between the US and Iran, crude oil has a driving force to continue rising, and butadiene rubber also has a driving force to follow the rise. Rubber RU and NR are expected to fluctuate strongly. The bulls believe that the current situation of rubber forests in Southeast Asia may limit rubber production increase, the seasonality of rubber usually turns up in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. The bears believe that the macro - expectation is uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. As of February 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 32.30%, 18.78 percentage points higher than last week and 36.25 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 38.35%, 22.04 percentage points higher than last week and 43.79 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.6 tons, a 7 - ton increase, a 5.4% increase. As of February 24, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area increased by 6.28 tons to 67.21 tons compared with before the festival. Spot prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 15950 (+100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 2055 (+10) dollars, STR20 mixed was 2055 (+10) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10400 (+300) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 12500 - 12600 (+300) yuan [12][13][14]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the stronger market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [15]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract rose 76 yuan, at 4868 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4630 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 238 (- 46) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 132 (+6) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2200 (- 50) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (+5) dollars/ton, and caustic soda spot was 636 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 82.1%, unchanged from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.7%, a 0.3% decrease; the ethylene method was 83.2%, a 0.7% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 17.1%, a 17.1% increase. The in - factory inventory was 50.4 tons (- 0.1), and the social inventory was 135.3 tons (+1) [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The fundamentals are poor. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season, and the export tax rebate cancellation has led to short - term rush exports, which is the only short - term support [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: On the fundamental side, the cost - side East China pure benzene was 6265 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan/ton increase; the pure benzene active contract closing price was 6551 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan/ton increase; the pure benzene basis was - 286 yuan/ton, a 381 - yuan/ton narrowing; on the spot - futures side, the styrene spot was 8000 yuan/ton, a 350 - yuan/ton increase; the styrene active contract closing price was 7966 yuan/ton, a 442 - yuan/ton increase; the basis was 34 yuan/ton, a 92 - yuan/ton weakening; the BZN spread was 140.37 yuan/ton, a 11.13 - yuan/ton decrease; the EB non - integrated device profit was 20.15 yuan/ton, a 216.95 - yuan/ton increase; the EB continuous 1 - continuous 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton narrowing; the upstream operating rate was 74.24%, a 3.16% increase; the Jiangsu port inventory was 17.56 tons, a 1.75 - ton inventory increase; the demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase; the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The cost - side pure benzene operating rate has rebounded from a low level, and the supply is still relatively abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the styrene operating rate is oscillating at a high level. The styrene port inventory is continuously increasing; the demand - side three - S overall operating rate is oscillating and rising. The pure benzene port inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the styrene port inventory is continuously decreasing. Currently, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired. Wait for it to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [21]. Polyethylene - Market Information: From a fundamental perspective, the main contract closing price was 6991 yuan/ton, a 394 - yuan/ton increase, the spot price was 6800 yuan/ton, a 250 - yuan/ton increase, the basis was - 191 yuan/ton, a 144 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 86.88%, a 0.76% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 57.97 tons, a 23.60 - ton inventory increase, and the trader inventory was 4.69 tons, a 2.32 - ton inventory increase. The downstream average operating rate was 18.22%, a 1.58% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton narrowing [22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The futures price has risen. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a historical high, reducing the pressure on the futures market. The supply pressure has eased in the first half of 2026, and the coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, supporting the price. It is a seasonal small peak season, and the raw material inventory of agricultural films on the demand side may reach its peak, and the overall operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded [23]. Polypropylene - Market Information: From a fundamental perspective, the main contract closing price was 6998 yuan/ton, a 387 - yuan/ton increase, the spot price was 6815 yuan/ton, a 185 - yuan/ton increase, the basis was - 183 yuan/ton, a 202 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 74.91%, a 0.26% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 73.99 tons, a 34.87 - ton inventory increase, the trader inventory was 24.97 tons, a 7.3 - ton inventory increase, and the port inventory was 8.86 tons, a 1.57 - ton inventory increase. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, an 8.49% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 7 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton widening. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan/ton narrowing [24][25]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report indicates a moderate production increase in the second quarter, and the supply surplus may be alleviated. There is no production capacity investment plan in the first half of 2026, and the supply pressure has eased; on the demand side, the downstream operating rate has a stronger seasonal rebound than in previous years. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. PX - Market Information: The PX05 contract rose 442 yuan, at 7836 yuan, the PX CFR rose 67 dollars, at 999 dollars. Converted according to the RMB central parity rate, the basis was 136 yuan (+94), and the 5 - 7 spread was 34 yuan (+64). In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 92.4%, a 0.4% increase; the Asian load was 84.9%, a 1.2% increase. In terms of equipment, a 2.5 - million - ton device of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, the maintenance plan of Jinling Petrochemical was postponed, and an overseas device in Kuwait was restarted. The PTA load was 76.6%, a 1.8% increase. In terms of equipment, one set of Yisheng New Materials was at 50% load and one set was restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 41.5 tons of PX to China in February, a 0.7 - ton increase year - on - year. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of December was 4.65 million tons, a 190,000 - ton inventory increase month - on - month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 295 dollars (- 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 152 dollars (- 8), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 dollars (- 14) [28]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many overhauls. In March, as PX enters the overhaul season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. At the same time, unexpected events in the Middle East may lead to a reduction in the load of domestic refineries. The current valuation