中国期货每日简报-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 2, equity index futures were mixed, with most commodities performing well and Energy & Chemicals leading the gains. In equity index futures, IH rose 0.1% and IM dropped 1.1%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.55% and T rose 0.13%. In commodity futures, SCFIS(Europe), Silver, and Fuel Oil were the top three gainers, while Poly-Silicon, Live Hog, and Sodium Hydroxide were the top three decliners [10][11][12]. - The price of crude oil is expected to rise due to supply disruptions. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have supported prices since January, and after the military conflict on February 28, oil prices entered a phase of verifying supply disruptions. The outcome of the conflict will affect the price range of Brent crude [16][17][20]. - High-sulfur fuel oil has stronger geopolitical sensitivity. The military conflict between the U.S. and Iran will impact Iran's fuel oil exports, and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz may cause further supply losses. High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to reflect geopolitical premiums more strongly than bitumen, leading to a faster narrowing of the bitumen - fuel oil spread [26][27][29]. - The rise in the SCFIS(Europe) contract is mainly sentiment - driven in the short term. Houthi militants' threat to resume attacks on vessels in the Red Sea may lead shipping lines to return to the Cape of Good Hope route, increasing the transit premium for the Strait of Hormuz. The SCFIS Europe Apr contract may rise to 1450 - 1500 points, and bullish sentiment may spread to the May and June peak - season contracts [33][35][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures - Overview - On March 2, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities showed high performances, with Energy & Chemicals leading the raise. In equity index futures, IH rose 0.1% and IM dropped 1.1%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.55% and T rose 0.13%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe), Silver, and Fuel Oil, and the top three decliners were Poly - Silicon, Live Hog, and Sodium Hydroxide [10][11][12]. 3.2 China Futures - Daily Raise 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On March 2, the front - month contract of Crude Oil rose 9.0% to 527.8 yuan/barrel (INE). Since January, prices have been supported by escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. After the military conflict on February 28, oil prices entered a phase of verifying supply disruptions. If the conflict is limited to military targets and ends in the short term, Brent crude is expected to fluctuate between $70 - 78 per barrel before retreating. If the conflict impacts crude oil production or transportation, short - term price volatility will intensify [16][17][20]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - On March 2, the front - month contract of Fuel Oil rose 9.0% to 3186 yuan/ton (SHFE). High - sulfur fuel oil has stronger geopolitical sensitivity. The military conflict between the U.S. and Iran will directly hit Iran's fuel oil exports, and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz may cause further supply losses. High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to reflect geopolitical premiums more strongly than bitumen, leading to a faster narrowing of the bitumen - fuel oil spread. Investors may watch for opportunities to long bitumen and short fuel oil if the forward spread falls below 400 yuan per tone [26][27][29]. 3.2.3 SCFIS(Europe) - On March 2, the front - month contract of SCFIS(Europe) rose 15.0% to 1429.2 points (INE). Houthi militants' claim to resume attacks on vessels in the Red Sea may lead shipping lines to return to the Cape of Good Hope route, increasing the transit premium for the Strait of Hormuz. The impact on Europe routes is mostly sentiment - driven in the short term. The SCFIS Europe Apr contract may rise to 1450 - 1500 points, and bullish sentiment may spread to the May and June peak - season contracts [33][35][39]. 3.3 China News - Macro News - On March 1, Wang Yi spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. China and Russia pushed for an emergency UNSC meeting on Iran. China upholds the UN Charter, opposes the use of force, and is highly concerned about the escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf. On March 2, MOFCOM stated China will take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [43].