2026-03-03期：所长早读-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The所长早读 recommends the chemical industry with a four - star attention index [8]. 2. Report's Core View - The conflict between the US and Iran is escalating, causing significant impacts on the global energy and commodity markets. Geopolitical factors are driving up prices of many commodities, especially in the chemical and energy sectors. Different industries and commodities show various trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical sensitivities [7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Geopolitical Situation - The military conflict between the US and Iran is intensifying. The US Defense Secretary and Trump have made statements indicating possible long - term military actions. NATO, France, the UK, and other countries have different stances on the conflict. Iran has stated its determination not to negotiate and has taken actions such as closing the Strait of Hormuz [7]. 3.2 Chemical Industry - Driven by geopolitical premiums, domestic chemical products have seen a wave of daily limit increases. The supply gap concerns due to the conflict have led to preventive production cuts by Asian refineries. Different chemical sub - sectors have different performances. For example, the aromatics sector, olefin sector, and some other sectors are affected differently by the conflict [9]. 3.3 Commodity Market - Precious Metals: Gold shows a strong trend due to geopolitical conflicts, while silver is in a volatile pattern [12][16]. - Base Metals: Copper's price upside is limited by inventory increases; zinc is in a range - bound oscillation; lead lacks driving forces and shows price fluctuations; tin is in an oscillatory adjustment; aluminum is running strongly, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][19][22][25][28][32]. - Energy and Minerals: Iron ore prices are oscillating due to the game between expectations and reality; coking coal and coke are in wide - range oscillations;动力煤 prices show mixed trends in production areas with limited upward momentum; logs are in a small - scale oscillation due to the game between expectations and reality [12][58][68][72][74]. - Petrochemicals: PX, PTA, and MEG are strongly affected by geopolitical factors, with cost - driven price increases; rubber is oscillating strongly; synthetic rubber is running strongly; LLDPE may see upstream supply contractions due to increased crude oil risks; PP's C3 raw materials remain strong, and PDH device production cuts continue; caustic soda is in a wide - range oscillation; pulp is in an oscillatory operation; glass prices are stable; methanol is running strongly; urea is in a short - term oscillatory pattern; styrene is in a strong - oscillatory pattern; soda ash's spot market has little change; LPG is strongly affected by short - term geopolitical disturbances; propylene's fundamentals remain tight due to cost - side geopolitical disturbances; PVC is in a range - bound oscillation; fuel oil continues to be strong, and the price center has reached a recent high; low - sulfur fuel oil has risen significantly, and the high - low sulfur spread in the outer - market spot has continued to shrink; the container shipping index (European line) should continue to pay attention to short - term upward risks; short - fiber and bottle - chip are short - term strong due to cost increases and speculative demand release; offset printing paper is mainly in a wait - and - see state; pure benzene is in a strong - oscillatory pattern [12][77][87][91][95][101][106][112][116][123][126][128][133][141][144][146][162][166][171]. - Agricultural Products: Palm oil has limited fundamental contradictions and should pay attention to oil price disturbances; soybean oil is range - bound due to US soybean cost support; soybean meal is stable in market sentiment and may oscillate; soybean shows spot price increases and futures price corrections; corn is in an oscillatory operation; sugar should pay attention to low - basis opportunities; cotton is waiting for new driving forces; eggs are in an oscillatory adjustment; hogs are in a passive inventory - building pattern in the off - season, and the fat - standard price difference is emerging; peanuts are in an oscillatory operation [12][176][185][188][191][195][201][204][208].