美伊军事冲突增添供应扰动担忧，基本金属震荡回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has increased concerns about supply disruptions, and base metals are expected to oscillate and strengthen in the short - term. There are short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. In the medium - term, due to the risk of the Fed's independence and supply disruptions, these metals are likely to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - View: Geopolitical conflicts intensify, and copper prices operate at a high level. The supply constraint of copper still exists, and the short - term geopolitical situation increases the risk of supply disruptions. Copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening [6]. - Analysis: On March 2, the spot premium of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was - 210 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 51.06 US dollars/dry ton, with no month - on - month change. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and copper supply may be affected, supporting copper prices. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the smelting profit of refined copper is falling, with an expected contraction in supply. The terminal demand is weak, and the social inventory of refined copper is high, which limits the upward space of copper prices [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - View: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and alumina prices oscillate. The current supply and demand are in excess, but the expectation of production cuts is intensifying, so alumina is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [7]. - Analysis: On March 2, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2659.9 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the alumina warehouse receipt was 326,638 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,980 tons. The current spot average price has dropped significantly compared with the end of last year, and high - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, with an increasing expectation of supply contraction. However, the supply contraction is still insufficient, and the domestic inventory accumulation trend is strong. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the support for alumina prices [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - View: Geopolitical conflicts increase supply concerns, and aluminum prices oscillate upwards. In the short - term, due to the repeated capital sentiment and the expected tightening of supply and demand, aluminum prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend. In the medium - term, the supply is constrained, the demand has resilient growth, and the supply - demand relationship turns to shortage, with the center of aluminum prices expected to rise [8][10]. - Analysis: On March 2, the domestic spot average price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,619 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 170 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The national mainstream consumer area aluminum ingot inventory was 1.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory was 405,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt was 294,788 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,490 tons. The US economic data is structurally differentiated, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has further escalated, but the macro - expectation is expected to remain positive. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The supply in Indonesia is constrained. The weekly initial - stage operating rate has slightly recovered, but high prices still suppress demand, and the inventory is still accumulating [8]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - View: Cost support continues, and prices oscillate upwards. In the short - term, due to strong cost support, prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend. In the medium - term, the cost support logic is strengthened, and there is a risk of production cuts in the supply end, with the supply - demand relationship maintaining a tight balance [12]. - Analysis: On March 2, the price of ADC12 was 23,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton. The price of scrap aluminum follows the price of aluminum ingots, and the supply is tight, providing strong cost support. The operating rate is at a low level, and the policy may still restrict supply. The automobile trade - in policy continues, but the subsidy intensity has decreased, and high prices suppress downstream demand. The weekly social inventory has accumulated [12]. 3.1.5 Zinc - View: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East cause zinc prices to oscillate at a high level. In the short - term, the supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but the macro - sentiment has improved, and zinc prices may continue to oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, zinc supply is expected to increase, while demand growth is limited, and zinc prices may decline [13]. - Analysis: On March 2, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 10 yuan/ton, that of Guangdong 0 zinc was - 130 yuan/ton, and that of Tianjin 0 zinc was - 50 yuan/ton. As of March 2, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 211,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,600 tons. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, which may affect zinc supply and support zinc prices. The decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, and the smelter's profit has not improved significantly, but the import of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. The domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but the new orders from the terminal are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average [13]. 3.1.6 Lead - View: Geopolitical conflicts cause lead prices to oscillate. The production of lead ingots remains high, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises may gradually recover after the Spring Festival, but the terminal demand is weak, and the lead ingot inventory may still accumulate. Due to the high cost of waste batteries, lead prices are expected to oscillate [15]. - Analysis: On March 2, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,950 yuan/ton, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead was 50 yuan/ton. The price of 1 lead ingot was 16,525 - 16,625 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,575 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets was 67,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,900 tons; the latest warehouse receipt of Shanghai lead was 54,929 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,888 tons. The spot premium is stable, the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable, and the futures warehouse receipt has decreased. The price of waste batteries is stable, the lead price is stable, the smelting profit of recycled lead is stable, and the smelter is still in the process of resuming production. The demand for electric bicycles is weak, but it is gradually entering the peak consumption season, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually recover [14][15]. 3.1.7 Nickel - View: High inventory suppresses the market, and the price oscillates and strengthens. The current fundamental situation of nickel has not improved significantly, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to be loose in February. The high LME inventory suppresses prices, but the downward revision of Indonesia's nickel ore quota in 2026 supports nickel prices [16]. - Analysis: On March 2, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 53,721 tons, a month - on - month increase of 590 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 287,976 tons, with no month - on - month change. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million tons and 270 million tons. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), with no change compared with the 28th. The domestic production of electrolytic nickel in January increased month - on - month, and the production of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia in January remained high. The overall supply pressure of nickel still exists, and the fundamental situation is in excess. Indonesia has revised down the nickel ore quota in 2026 and plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectation of nickel cost and balance [15][16]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - View: The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market oscillates upwards. In January, the production schedule increased slightly month - on - month due to profit repair, but it is expected to decline significantly in February due to the Spring Festival. The downstream demand is weak in the traditional off - season, but considering the long - term suppression of industrial chain profits and the support from the ore end, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [17]. - Analysis: On March 2, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 52,185 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was 15 yuan/ton relative to the stainless - steel main contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), with no change compared with the 28th. The price of nickel iron is strong, and the chromium end is stable, providing some support for the cost of stainless steel. The production schedule in January increased slightly month - on - month due to profit repair, but it is expected to decline significantly in February due to the Spring Festival. The terminal demand is still cautious, and the social inventory has accumulated, and the warehouse receipt has also increased marginally [17]. 3.1.9 Tin - View: Supply concerns still exist, and tin prices have strong support. In the long - term, due to high supply risks, tin prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [19]. - Analysis: On March 2, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 25 tons to 7,550 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 113 tons to 11,531 tons; the Shanghai tin position increased by 23,491 lots to 113,075 lots. The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin ingot was 434,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 yuan/ton. The armed conflict in Myanmar has raised market concerns, although it did not occur in the main tin - producing area of Wa State and will not significantly affect tin production for the time being. Indonesia's short - term supply is restricted due to RKAB approval. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still severe, increasing supply concerns. The supply of tin mines is tightening, the processing fee of tin concentrates is at a low level, and the output of refined tin is difficult to increase. The semiconductor industry is growing rapidly, and the consumption in new energy vehicles and other fields continues to rise, and the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow [19]. 3.2行情监测 - Commodity Index: On March 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodity index showed that the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial product index were 2458.25 (+1.60%), 2824.14 (+1.76%), and 2331.34 (+1.48%) respectively. The non - ferrous metal index was 2732.94, with a daily increase of 0.89%, a 5 - day increase of 1.38%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.37%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.75% [146][148].