供需预期分化，碳酸锂相对偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand expectations of new energy metals are differentiated, and lithium carbonate is relatively strong. In the short - to - medium term, the price trends of new energy metals will diverge. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, and the price center may rise; the supply - demand surplus of lithium ore is expected to narrow, and the price center will be pushed up [2]. - Industrial silicon: Supply has rebounded, and silicon prices are under pressure and fluctuating. - Polysilicon: Inventory continues to accumulate, and polysilicon is temporarily under pressure. - Lithium carbonate: Concerns about demand expectations have led to a correction in lithium carbonate [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Price Information: As of March 2, the price of Tongyang 553 in Xinjiang was 8,650 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,300 yuan/ton; the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,850 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,750 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory Situation: As of last week, domestic inventory was 462,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; market inventory was 186,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; factory inventory was 276,050 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [7]. - Production Data: In February, the production of industrial silicon was 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%; the cumulative production in 2025 was 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [7]. - Export Data: In December, the export volume of industrial silicon was 59,036 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [7]. - Main Logic: On the supply side, the operation in the southwest during the dry season has dropped to a very low level, and Sichuan has basically stopped production. The operation of large northwest factories has rebounded, and it is expected to continue to recover. On the demand side, the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is weak. In the long - term, there is still pressure of over - supply [7]. - Outlook: In the medium - to - long - term, silicon prices are still under pressure due to the increasing supply. Currently, the market sentiment is volatile, and silicon prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Price Information: On March 2, the average transaction price of N - type dense material was 54.5 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day [7][8]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: On March 2, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,510 lots, with no change from the previous day [8]. - Import and Export Data: In December 2025, the export volume of polysilicon was about 1,670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December was about 25,115.57 tons; the import volume in December was about 1,872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was about 19,051.01 tons [8]. - Main Logic: On the supply side, the production of polysilicon in the southwest has decreased, and it is expected to continue to contract. On the demand side, demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt numbers are increasing, putting pressure on prices. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation may tighten, and prices may show a wide - range fluctuation [10]. - Outlook: The weak demand drags down the price of polysilicon, but considering the continued supply contraction, the price may show a wide - range fluctuation [10]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - Price Information: On March 2, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2.28% to 172,020 yuan/ton; the total open interest decreased by 4,164 lots to 707,561 lots. The morning spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 172,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous day; the evening market price was 173,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. The morning price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 170,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous day; the evening price was 173,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 265 lots to 38,196 lots [11]. - Main Logic: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, but the terminal performance needs further observation. From January to February, supply was relatively strong, and demand was also good, maintaining a tight balance. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand have recovered. In March, strong demand and the ban on lithium ore exports from Zimbabwe have boosted market sentiment, but the new energy vehicle sales from January to February were not optimistic. In the short - term, the fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [11]. - Outlook: In the short - term, the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. 3.2行情监测 There is no specific content provided in the given text for this part. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index was 2,458.25, an increase of 1.60%; the commodity 20 index was 2,824.14, an increase of 1.76%; the industrial product index was 2,331.34, an increase of 1.48% [49]. - New Energy Commodity Index: On March 2, 2026, the index was 547.74, with a daily decline of 0.52%, a 5 - day increase of 1.77%, a 1 - month decline of 7.48%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.47% [51].