利率博弈加剧，贵?属?位震荡

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The precious metals market is experiencing high - level oscillations due to intensified interest rate games. The market sentiment has shifted from single - factor (geopolitical risk) to a three - factor game of "geopolitical risk + growth resilience + inflation repricing" [1]. - Gold is supported by safe - haven demand, but the pressure from interest rates is increasing. Silver has dual attributes, and its price amplitude has been magnified [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold - Logic: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and potential energy and shipping risks continue to provide risk - premium support for gold. The better - than - expected ISM manufacturing data strengthen the narrative of economic resilience, weakening market bets on rapid interest - rate cuts and putting downward pressure on gold prices. The significant rebound of the price - payment index in the ISM data leads to fluctuations in real - interest - rate expectations, causing gold prices to face a re - balance between bulls and bears at high levels [1]. - Outlook: If geopolitical conflicts continue to spread and energy prices rise, gold will have both safe - haven and anti - inflation support. If growth data remain strong and yields increase, gold prices may enter a stage of high - level oscillations and sentiment fluctuations. The medium - term direction depends on the evolution of real interest rates and the US dollar [1]. Silver - Logic: Geopolitical conflicts and safe - haven demand provide support for silver, but its financial attribute is more sensitive. The new - order index has declined but remains in the expansion range, indicating that industrial demand has not significantly weakened, thus supporting the structural elasticity of silver prices. The sharp increase in the price - payment index raises interest - rate expectations, and the rapid switching of funds between domestic and foreign markets significantly amplifies the intraday amplitude of silver prices [2]. - Outlook: If the risk sentiment continues and energy prices remain high, silver has elasticity under the "safe - haven + industrial expectation" framework. If the US dollar and yields continue to strengthen, the decline of silver prices may be greater than that of gold [2]. Commodity Index - Composite Index: No specific data provided. - Specialty Index: The commodity index is 2458.25, up 1.60%; the commodity 20 index is 2824.14, up 1.76%; the industrial products index is 2331.34, up 1.48% [42]. - Sector Index - Precious Metals: On March 2, 2026, the precious metals index was 4629.10, with a daily increase of 3.49%, a 5 - day increase of 4.67%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.65%, and an increase of 21.05% year - to - date [44].