现实?撑有限，盘?冲?乏

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the overall black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently in the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the expectations for the peak season are still cautious. The futures market is expected to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the realization of peak - season demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron Ore: Overseas mine shipments are at a high level, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the pricing weight of fundamentals is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro - disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1][7] - Scrap Steel: The supply and demand are both weak, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuation is small. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the actual demand [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand structure will remain healthy. However, there may be short - term disturbances on the demand side. With the weakening of coking coal cost support, there is an expectation of price reduction for spot goods. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [2][10] - Coking Coal: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals have pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. The spot is expected to run weakly and stably, and the futures market is expected to run with wide - range oscillations affected by capital sentiment [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese Silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream inventory is high. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face obvious selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures price will fluctuate around the cost valuation [2][14] - Silicon Iron: The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. After the futures valuation is repaired to near the cost, the driving force for further upward movement is insufficient. It is difficult for the silicon iron futures price to maintain a high level [2][15] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply has an expectation of increase, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If the demand does not improve significantly after the Lantern Festival, the high inventory will always suppress the price [2][12] - Soda Ash: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline [2][12] 3.5 Steel - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is still accumulating, the fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated, and the expectations for the peak season are still cautious. The futures market is expected to run under pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased by 1.60% to 2458.25, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.76% to 2824.14, and the industrial products index increased by 1.48% to 2331.34. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.35% on that day, 0.87% in the past 5 days, - 4.40% in the past month, and - 3.38% since the beginning of the year [100][102]