格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20260303

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Monday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher across the board, with the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2606 rising 0.55%, the 10 - year T2606 rising 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2606 rising 0.09%, and the 2 - year TS2606 rising 0.02%. Affected by the news of the US - Iran war over the weekend and the stock market correction, bond futures rose as expected. Bond futures may oscillate in the short term. The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - On Monday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher across the board, with the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2606 rising 0.55%, the 10 - year T2606 rising 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2606 rising 0.09%, and the 2 - year TS2606 rising 0.02% [1] 2. Important Information - Open Market: On Monday, the central bank conducted 19 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with no reverse repurchase due on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 19 billion yuan [1] - Funding Market: On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.31% (1.32% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.46% (1.50% in the previous trading day) [1] - Cash Bond Market: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year government bonds decreased by 0.10 BP to 1.36%, that of 5 - year bonds decreased by 0.46 BP to 1.54%, that of 10 - year bonds increased by 0.08 BP to 1.78%, and that of 30 - year bonds decreased by 0.30 BP to 2.27% [1] - Overseas Data: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in February was 52.4, with a market expected value of 51.5 and a previous value of 52.6 [1] - Geopolitical Situation: US President Trump said on March 1 that the military operation against Iran might last about four weeks and that the US and Israel would continue the military operation against Iran until all goals were achieved. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said on March 2 that Iran would not negotiate with the US. The Israeli military chief of staff announced an "offensive against the Lebanese Hezbollah" [1] 3. Market Logic - In January, China's social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, with a market expectation of 6.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 165.4 billion yuan year - on - year. The net financing of government bonds in January increased by 976.4 billion yuan, an increase of 283.1 billion yuan year - on - year. The RMB loans in the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan in January, with a market expectation of 4.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 420 billion yuan year - on - year. In January, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing compared with the previous month. China's overall inflation level rebounded moderately in January, with the core CPI rising 0.3% month - on - month and the PPI rising 0.4% month - on - month. The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, and the service business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a mild economic situation in January. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure would be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the guarantee of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". The central bank said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of government bond trading in liquidity management, and keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant. On Monday, the Wind All - A Index opened lower, rose slightly, then fell back and rebounded, with the rebound continuing in the afternoon, reaching close to the previous closing level before falling back slightly. It closed with a small positive line with upper and lower shadows, down 0.40% for the whole day, and the trading volume was 3.05 trillion yuan, an increase from 2.51 trillion yuan in the previous trading day [1][2] 4. Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors should conduct band operations [2]