黑色建材日报2026-03-03-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the black - series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations. In the short term, inventory digestion and demand verification are the core contradictions. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are unlikely to reverse trends and will probably continue to fluctuate weakly within a range [3]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue the cycle of oscillation and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains in a weak position among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term [9][16]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with prices oscillating. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large northwest factories and downstream demand changes [19]. - For polycrystalline silicon, the futures market is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to whether new "anti - involution" statements appear in important meetings [22]. - For glass, the market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 1015 - 1075 yuan/ton [25]. - For soda ash, the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation and consolidation pattern, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1215 yuan/ton [27]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3067 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 9328 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.9038 million lots, a decrease of 44381 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3190 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3219 yuan/ton, a rise of 4 yuan/ton (0.124%). The registered warehouse receipts were 428388 tons, an increase of 76141 tons. The main contract position was 1.4596 million lots, a decrease of 32410 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3240 yuan/ton, with no change; in Shanghai, it was also 3240 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views - The rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the production and sales recovery rhythm not fully restored and the inventory accumulation rate relatively fast, but still within a controllable range. The hot - rolled coil has a production level similar to that before the holiday, and the apparent demand after the holiday has recovered quickly, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level in the past five years. The focus should be on the inventory reduction rhythm and sustainability [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 754.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.53% (+4.00). The position changed by - 3955 lots to 542700 lots. The weighted position was 951300 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 755 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.65 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.82%. Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 national important meeting from March 4th to March 11th, requiring enterprises to implement phased emission reduction control and reduce the blast furnace load by no less than 30% [5]. 3.2.2 Strategy Views - In terms of supply, overseas ore shipments fluctuate slightly at a high level. The shipments from Australia decreased, while those from Brazil continued to increase, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries also increased. The near - end arrivals continued to decline. In terms of demand, the latest daily average hot metal production increased to 233.28 tons. Before the Spring Festival, some blast furnaces were复产 as planned, and most of the blast furnace overhauls started in late February. The steel mill profitability rate increased slightly. During the important meeting, hot metal production is expected to be temporarily affected. In terms of inventory, the port inventory has returned to the accumulation stage, and the steel mill inventory has decreased significantly during the holiday. It is expected that the price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in March [6]. 3.3 Ferroalloys 3.3.1 Market Information - On March 2nd, the main contract of ferromanganese silicon (SM605) closed up 0.93% at 6082 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 ferromanganese silicon in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 92 yuan/ton to the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed up 0.66% at 5764 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 186 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. 3.3.2 Strategy Views - The rise of ferroalloys last week was mainly due to market speculation about the increase in South African power costs and the rumored levy of ecological export tariffs on manganese ore (the ecological export tariff rumor was falsified), which drove the speculative enthusiasm of market funds. In addition, under the background of the central economic work conference in December last year re - emphasizing "dual carbon", market rumors about energy consumption monitoring, dual - control of energy consumption, and "anti - involution" near the "Two Sessions" have led to market capital expectations and games. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue to oscillate and reduce volatility, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector is still in a weak position, and ferroalloys are also affected. In terms of fundamental supply and demand, the supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese silicon is still not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement. The future market drivers mainly come from the direction of the black sector and the cost - push from manganese ore for ferromanganese silicon and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) for ferrosilicon. Attention should be paid to possible restrictive measures on manganese ore exports in South Africa and Gabon, as well as the progress of the "dual carbon" policy [9][10]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke 3.4.1 Market Information - On March 2nd, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) continued to rebound from the bottom during the session and closed up 0.05% at 1094.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1522.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 237.5 yuan/ton to the futures; the price of medium - sulfur coking coal was 1270 yuan/ton, with a premium of 159 yuan/ton to the futures; the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1197 yuan/ton, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton to the futures. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 1.01% at 1652.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, with a premium of 84.5 yuan/ton to the futures; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, with a premium of 114 yuan/ton to the futures [12]. 3.4.2 Strategy Views - Last week, the prices of coking coal and coke oscillated weakly. After the downstream steel mills and coking plants completed their pre - holiday inventory replenishment, they will enter the active de - stocking stage until mid - April, which restricts consumption. At the same time, coal mines gradually resume production after the holiday, and the coal production in March is usually at the annual peak. For coke, the downstream also enters the active de - stocking stage, and the weakening of coking coal prices reduces the lower - bound support. In addition, the market is still worried about the terminal demand for steel and has low expectations for the "Two Sessions" policies. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue to oscillate and reduce volatility, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector is in a weak position, and coking coal and coke are also affected. After the Spring Festival, the total inventory of coking coal has decreased, but the downstream actively de - stocks while the upstream inventory accumulates, which restricts the short - term demand. The coal production has increased significantly after the holiday, bringing marginal pressure to the supply side. It is expected that coking coal may have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, but the time is more likely to be between June and October, rather than the present [15][16]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon 3.5.1 Market Information - Industrial silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8325 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.83% (- 70). The weighted contract position changed by - 2701 lots to 442489 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the main contract was 825 yuan/ton for 553 and 475 yuan/ton for 421 [18]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The main contract of polycrystalline silicon (PS2605) closed at 44930 yuan/ton, with a change of - 3.37% (- 1565). The weighted contract position changed by - 430 lots to 65273 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 51.9 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg. The basis of the main contract was 6970 yuan/ton [20]. 3.5.2 Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: After the holiday, the number of furnaces in Xinjiang increased, and the weekly output increased. It is expected that the supply will increase slightly in March. The production in Southwest China has limited short - term incremental capacity. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply is also expected to increase slightly in March, so the price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large northwest factories and downstream demand changes [19]. - Polycrystalline silicon: In March, some bases in the northwest will resume production or carry out rotation overhauls, and the production schedule is expected to increase. The factory inventory in the silicon material link is still at a high level, and the de - stocking amplitude is limited. The prices of battery cells and components have increased, but the silicon wafer link is still in a state of low prices and high inventory, so the feedback to the silicon material link is not good. The market trading was light in the first week after the holiday, and the spot price of silicon materials decreased slightly. It is expected that the "anti - involution" policy will support the price, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to whether new "anti - involution" statements appear in important meetings [21][22]. 3.6 Glass and Soda Ash 3.6.1 Market Information - Glass: The main contract of glass closed at 1062 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, an increase of 0.38% (+4). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1050 yuan, with no change; the price in Central China was 1090 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan. On February 26th, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 76.008 million cases, an increase of 20.656 million cases (37.32%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 67820 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 126928 lots [24]. - Soda ash: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1194 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, an increase of 0.25% (+3). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1164 yuan, with no change. On February 26th, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 0.3064 million tons (37.32%), including 0.8959 million tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 0.1395 million tons, and 0.9985 million tons of light soda ash, an increase of 0.1669 million tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 3411 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 2658 lots [26]. 3.6.2 Strategy Views - Glass: The supply of the float glass market remains stable, and a 600 - ton production line in Gansu Kaisheng has started production. The demand is weak, with most downstream processing plants not yet resumed, and the demand release is slow. Traders are mostly waiting and watching. Affected by the blocked shipment of original sheet enterprises during the Spring Festival, the industry inventory has increased significantly, and the de - stocking pressure is prominent. Although manufacturers generally raised prices during the "good start" window, the price increase is difficult under the background of weak demand and high inventory. It is expected that the market will maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 1015 - 1075 yuan/ton [25]. - Soda ash: The spot market is still full of wait - and - see sentiment. The downstream of light soda ash has not fully resumed production, and the downstream of heavy soda ash mainly purchases on demand, with low enthusiasm. In terms of demand, the main consumption industries such as glass and detergents are still in the transition stage of resuming production, and the actual procurement release is slow. In general, there are few maintenance plans for soda ash plants recently, and the supply side changes little. It is expected that the market will maintain a narrow - range oscillation and consolidation pattern, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1215 yuan/ton [27].