山金期货黑色板块日报-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - system commodities are currently in a state of weak supply and demand. The output and demand are at a low level, and the inventory is increasing rapidly from a low level. It is expected that downstream demand will gradually start after the Lantern Festival, and the market's demand expectation for 2026 is relatively weak. For iron ore, the market is in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. The supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory has reached a record high [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Impact: The attack between the US, Israel and Iran on Saturday led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices on Monday, but it had limited impact on black - system commodities [2] - Supply and Demand: Last week, the output of threaded steel from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the five major varieties decreased significantly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand was at the lowest level of the year [2] - Technical Analysis: After a sharp rebound, the futures price fell back, indicating that the upper resistance is still large. Due to the current low valuation, the downward space may be limited [2] - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2] - Data Details: - Prices: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 3067 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3219 yuan/ton. The spot price of threaded steel (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) is 3190 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) is 3240 yuan/ton [2] - Production: The national building materials steel mill's threaded steel output is 165.10 tons, and the hot - rolled coil output is 309.61 tons [2] - Inventory: The social inventory of the five major varieties is 1295.75 tons, the social inventory of threaded steel is 567.76 tons, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil is 357.37 tons [2] - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand of the five major varieties is 662.5 tons, the apparent demand of threaded steel social inventory is 80.54 tons, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil social inventory is 291.31 tons [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - Demand: The market is currently in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to gradually enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. Last week, the output of the five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, and the daily average molten iron output increased by 28,000 tons month - on - month to 2.334 million tons [4] - Supply: With the improvement of the weather, the shipment has gradually recovered to a high level. The arrival volume has decreased, but the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high [4] - Technical Analysis: After a short - term rebound, the futures price continued to fall back, and the medium - term downward trend is still continuing [4] - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions lightly [4] - Data Details: - Prices: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 754.5 yuan/dry ton, and the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 99.26 US dollars/dry ton [4] - Shipment: The Australian iron ore shipment is 16.674 million tons, and the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 6.372 million tons [4] - Inventory: The total port inventory is 170.9196 million tons, and the port trade ore inventory is 117.1165 million tons [4] 3.3 Industry News - On March 2, 2026, at 10:00, Anshan City launched a yellow (Level III) early warning for heavy pollution weather emergency response. Currently, steel enterprises in Anshan are implementing production suspension and restriction measures, and some steel enterprises are implementing a 40% production reduction [6] - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 22.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 911,000 tons; the total arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports in China was 21.469 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons; the total arrival volume of iron ore at six northern ports was 10.328 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 51,000 tons [6] - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, the total global iron ore shipment was 33.407 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 198,000 tons. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 26.907 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 226,000 tons. The Australian shipment was 19.484 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 623,000 tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 15.711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.38 million tons. The Brazilian shipment was 7.422 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 397,000 tons [6]