2026年03月03日：期货市场交易指引-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives specific trading suggestions for various futures products [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides trading strategies and market analysis for multiple futures sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - spinning industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1][6][8] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Index: Mid - to long - term optimistic, buy on dips. Before the Two Sessions, it may oscillate. Influenced by geopolitical events and economic data [6] - Treasury Bonds: Oscillate. Policy signals are clear, and the game between the equity and bond markets may intensify. Geopolitical disturbances may lead to a decline in risk appetite, and treasury bonds may oscillate strongly [6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Mines are resuming production, but trading is weak, and downstream demand recovery is slow [8] - Rebar: Range trading. The rebar futures price is low in valuation and has weak driving forces. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the post - festival demand recovery [9] - Glass: Short May and long September. The market is weak in the short term, with increased inventory and weak demand. There is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation [10][11] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Short - term range trading, focus on 98000 - 106000 yuan/ton. The price has moved up after the festival, but inventory has increased, and demand is limited. Geopolitical events may push up the price, but the upward momentum may be insufficient [13][14] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation. The supply expectation is improving, but inventory pressure is large. The market trading logic remains unchanged, and the price is pushed up by the Middle East situation, but the sustainability is limited [16] - Nickel: Buy moderately on dips. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price, but demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. It is expected to run strongly [17][18] - Tin: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to supply and demand changes [19] - Gold and Silver: Oscillate strongly. Geopolitical events increase risk - aversion sentiment, and the US economic data is weak. The central price is expected to move up, and it is recommended to buy on dips after a full correction [20][21][22] - Lithium Carbonate: Range oscillation. Supply disturbances exist, and the demand is strong. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies [23][24] Energy Chemicals - PVC: Range trading. The cost is low, supply is high, and domestic demand is weak. Exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to policies and cost changes [25] - Caustic Soda: Oscillate at a low level. Demand support is weak, and there is inventory pressure. Spring maintenance and downstream replenishment may support the price, and it is expected to oscillate [27] - Styrene: Buy on dips but do not chase highs. The price is supported by cost due to geopolitical events. There is inventory pressure in March, and attention should be paid to new orders [28] - Polyolefins: Oscillate strongly. Geopolitical conflicts strengthen cost support. Supply is high, and inventory is increasing. Downstream demand is expected to pick up, and it is expected to run strongly [29] - Rubber: Buy on dips but do not chase highs. It oscillates strongly under the game of cost support and inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to inventory, demand, and market sentiment [30] - Urea: Range trading. Supply is increasing, and demand is also increasing. The price is expected to run strongly in March and may be under pressure later. Attention should be paid to the Iran situation [31][33] - Methanol: Range trading. The war in Iran may cause a supply gap. Domestic supply and demand are relatively stable, and inventory is at a certain level. It is expected to run strongly [34][35] - Soda Ash: Short on rallies. Supply is high, inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to spring maintenance [36] Cotton - Spinning Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillate strongly. The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing, and domestic consumption is expected to pick up after the festival. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [37] - Apples: Oscillate strongly. The trading is stable, and the price is relatively stable. The sales in the distribution area are okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [39] - Red Dates: Oscillate. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality, and the market is relatively stable [40] Agricultural Livestock - Hogs: Be cautious about shorting the May contract, and short on rallies. In the short term, the price is oscillating at the bottom due to oversupply and seasonal factors. In the long term, the supply may tighten, but the price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to capacity reduction [41][42] - Eggs: If the culling does not accelerate, short on rallies for near - month contracts. The egg price is stable, and the supply is normal but the demand has not fully recovered. The market will be in a bottom - grinding stage, and attention should be paid to culling and demand [42] - Corn: Oscillate strongly. The short - term basis is high, and it is recommended to operate in the range. The supply - demand game is intense in the short term, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose in the long term. Attention should be paid to weather and sales rhythm [43] - Soybean Meal: Short on rallies. The US soybean price is affected by multiple factors, and the domestic supply - demand is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to soybean arrivals and auctions [44][45] - Oils and Fats: Oscillate strongly. Oils and fats follow the international crude oil to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to buy soybean and palm oils on dips. Different oils have different supply - demand situations [45][50]