铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The report focuses on the iron ore market, stating that it is in a game between expectations and reality, with ore prices fluctuating[1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of iron ore futures was 754.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4.0 yuan/ton and a daily increase rate of 0.53%. The position of I2605 was 542,727 hands, with a decrease of 3,955 hands[1] - Spot Price: The prices of imported ores such as Carajás fines (65%), PB fines (61.5%), Jimbobara fines (61%), and Super Special fines (56.5%) all increased by 6.0 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The prices of domestic ores such as Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged[1] - Basis and Spread: The basis of I2605 against Super Special fines increased by 2.5 yuan/ton to 92.3 yuan/ton, and the basis against Jimbobara fines increased by 2.5 yuan/ton to 68.9 yuan/ton. The spread of I2605 - I2609 increased by 1.5 yuan/ton to 21.0 yuan/ton, while the spread of I2609 - I2701 remained unchanged at 12.0 yuan/ton. The spreads between different ore types such as Carajás fines - PB fines remained unchanged[1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On February 25, 2026, five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to further optimize and adjust the real - estate policy, which will be implemented from February 26, 2026[1] - On February 25, it was reported that some steel enterprises in North China had received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 National Two Sessions. They are required to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11, with a blast furnace load reduction of no less than 30% and to formulate a special emission reduction implementation plan[2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish)[2]