宏观金融类：文字早评2026-03-03-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite and the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate driving foreign capital inflows, it is advisable to focus on the policy signals of the domestic Two Sessions and changes in the war situation. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - The economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short - term market risk - aversion sentiment is favorable for the upward movement of the bond market, but the intensity and duration of the conflict need to be further observed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. - After the US - Israel joint military strike, the Middle East situation has continued to escalate, and the tail - risk has significantly increased. Precious metals are driven by risk - aversion sentiment in the short term. With Trump's statement and the scale of the conflict target, there is great uncertainty about the duration of the Middle East tension, and prices are likely to return to high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term [10]. - In the medium term, the implementation of Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction policy will gradually raise the price center of nickel ore, and nickel prices are expected to slowly rise in a volatile manner. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and inventories continue to increase slightly. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [19]. - In the long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue the cycle of volatility and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains weak among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term [38][44]. - The supply of the float glass market remains stable, while the demand is weak. The industry inventory has risen significantly, and the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The spot market of soda ash is still full of wait - and - see sentiment, and the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile pattern [40][41]. - The prices of rubber RU and NR are expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the strong trend of the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is advisable to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [55]. - The current oil price has already priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap caused by Iran's supply disruption still exists. It is recommended to adopt a mid - term layout strategy but wait for the end of the geopolitical conflict to eliminate tail - risks [57]. - The downward momentum of methanol still exists, but the negative factors are weakening at the margin, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to buy on dips in the medium - term [59]. - The current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window, and combined with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short - allocate [61]. - After the Saudi refinery closure and the attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East shows no sign of cooling. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward repair space of the valuation is narrowing. It is necessary to wait for the profit to fall to a low level before considering long - positions [63]. - The comprehensive profit of PVC enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, and the demand is under pressure. The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor [65]. - The overall load of ethylene glycol is still high, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term. In the short term, due to the tense situation in Iran, there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage and inventory reduction. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [68]. - As the expectation of PTA maintenance decreases, it is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The processing fee of PTA has fallen back, and there is room for the valuation to rise in the medium - term. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following PX and crude oil [70]. - The PX load remains high, and the overall load of downstream PTA is relatively low, resulting in a short - term inventory accumulation pattern. In March, as PX enters the maintenance season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the inventory - reduction cycle. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [72]. - Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the spot price of polyethylene has risen. The downward space for PE valuation still exists, and the pressure on the disk has been reduced. The demand is expected to pick up seasonally, and the overall start - up rate is expected to bottom out and rebound [74]. - The cost of polypropylene is expected to increase moderately in the second quarter, and the supply pressure will be relieved. The downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally, and the long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - dominated downward trend to the production mismatch. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [76]. - After the Spring Festival, the slaughter scale of pigs is large, and the average trading weight is high, indicating limited inventory clearance. The short - term rebound of the spot price is limited, and it is advisable to maintain a bearish attitude towards the near - term contract. The far - term contract is supported by capacity reduction and seasonal factors, but the upside space is also limited [79]. - The inventory of laying hens is large, but the egg price after the Spring Festival is higher than expected, and the inventory has not significantly accumulated. However, the increase in stocking behaviors may weaken the medium - term upward potential of egg prices, and it is necessary to pay attention to the valuation pressure on the far - term contract [81]. - Due to the market rumor of extended customs clearance for South American soybeans, the soybean meal price has risen significantly. The export sales of US soybeans have improved, and the import cost has increased. The protein meal price may be bottoming out [84]. - Affected by the weekend geopolitical crisis, the short - term rise in crude oil prices has driven up the prices of edible oils. The inventory of vegetable oils in China and India at the end of January has further decreased, but the decline in Malaysia's exports in February has weakened the oil prices. It is advisable to wait for the oil prices to stabilize at a low level and then consider buying [86]. - The decline in India's sugar production in the first half of February and the increase in Thailand's production offset each other. The raw sugar price has fallen to a historical low and is continuously at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio in the new Brazilian sugar - cane season after April. Domestically, the pressure of increased production has been alleviated, and there may be a rebound. It is advisable to participate in long - positions in small amounts on dips [89]. - After the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton futures have increased positions and prices significantly, speculating in advance on the peak season in March. It is necessary to focus on the downstream start - up situation in March. If it is favorable, there is still room for the Zhengzhou cotton price to rise. It is advisable to buy on dips [91]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - Market Information: The National Large - scale Fund has made its first investment in embodied intelligence, and Galaxy General has completed a new round of financing of 2.5 billion yuan; the European natural gas price has risen by 42%, reaching the largest increase since March 2022, and Qatar Energy Company will stop the production of liquefied natural gas; MiniMax's total revenue in 2025 reached 79.038 million US dollars, with 73% of the revenue coming from the international market, and the gross profit margin increased to 25.4%, exceeding market expectations; Deutsche Telekom has cooperated with Starlink to expand the mobile network coverage [2]. - Strategy View: Amid the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite and the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate driving foreign capital inflows, it is advisable to focus on the policy signals of the domestic Two Sessions and changes in the war situation. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Monday, the closing prices of the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS were 112.740, 108.530, 106.080, and 102.464 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 0.60%, 0.12%, 0.07%, and 0.01%. Three Anglo - American oil tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz; the final value of France's manufacturing PMI in February was 50.1, higher than the expected 49.9; the VIX index rose to 25.24 points on March 2, reaching the highest level since November last year. The central bank conducted 1.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net investment of 1.9 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy View: Due to the Spring Festival misalignment, the year - on - year CPI in January was lower than expected, while the PPI improved both year - on - year and month - on - month. The potential suppression of inflation on the bond market still exists. The financial data in January showed that the endogenous driving force for economic recovery was still unstable, and the credit at the beginning of the year was weak. The US - Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short - term market risk - aversion sentiment is favorable for the upward movement of the bond market, but the intensity and duration of the conflict need to be further observed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold rose 1.14% to 1,184.90 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 22,939.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 1.80% to 5,342.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 3.83% to 89.72 US dollars/ounce; the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.05%, and the US dollar index was 98.55. After the US - Israel joint military strike on Iran, the situation has continued to escalate, increasing the tail - risk in the Middle East. The demand for safe - haven assets has increased, driving up the prices of gold and silver. The US ISM - PMI data in February 2026 was 52.4, higher than market expectations, and the overall was still in the expansion range. The price index has risen significantly, while the employment market is still weak [9]. - Strategy View: After the US - Israel joint military strike, the Middle East situation has continued to escalate, and the tail - risk has significantly increased. Precious metals are driven by risk - aversion sentiment in the short term. With Trump's statement and the scale of the conflict target, there is great uncertainty about the duration of the Middle East tension, and prices are likely to return to high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term, with the reference operating range of the Shanghai gold main contract being 1,150 - 1,200 yuan/gram and the Shanghai silver main contract being 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of gold and crude oil have risen, while copper prices have risen and then fallen. The LME 3M copper contract closed down 1.59% to 13,084 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,280 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 3,975 tons to 257,675 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 28,000 tons. The spot discount of copper in the East China region has narrowed, while that in the Guangdong region has widened. The domestic copper spot import loss is about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference has slightly narrowed [12]. - Strategy View: Under the influence of the geopolitical situation, although risk appetite has been affected, the key mineral resource attribute of copper has been strengthened, and there is a risk of supply interruption, so copper prices still have strong support. The increase in crude oil prices has reduced the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the short term. Domestically, with the arrival of the Two Sessions and the release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" for the real estate market, there is support in terms of sentiment. The TC of the copper industry is running at a low level, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. As the downstream start - up rate further increases, the global copper inventory accumulation is expected to slow down. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M copper contract is 12,950 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [14]. Aluminum - Market Information: The tense situation in the Middle East has increased concerns about supply, driving up aluminum prices. The LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 1.38% to 3,185 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,195 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 29,000 tons to 693,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons to 295,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by more than 70,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and the processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 464,000 tons [15]. - Strategy View: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory has increased to a high level, but with the resumption of work and production in the downstream, the inventory is expected to peak earlier than in previous years. The US - Israel military action against Iran has increased the risk of aluminum supply in the Middle East, and the electrolytic aluminum plant in Mozambique under South32 is still expected to be shut down for maintenance in March. Coupled with the high spot premium of aluminum in North America and the relatively low LME inventory, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 24,000 - 24,600 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum contract is 3,140 - 3,240 US dollars/ton [16]. Zinc - Market Information: On Monday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.60% to 24,874 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 189,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S zinc price fell 24.5 US dollars to 3,355.5 US dollars/ton, and the total position was 226,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,370 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingots in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 70,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 97,400 tons. The social inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets increased by 31,600 tons to 211,900 tons on March 2 [17]. - Strategy View: In the industry, the domestic TC of zinc concentrate has increased slightly, and the smelting profit has improved slightly. The finished product inventory of smelting enterprises and the social inventory of zinc ingots have both increased significantly, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The actual impact of the conflict in Iran on zinc ore supply is relatively small, but market concerns about trade disruptions and energy price increases may briefly push up zinc prices from the sentiment side [17]. Lead - Market Information: On Monday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.28% to 16,893 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 112,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S lead price fell 8.5 US dollars to 1,978 US dollars/ton, and the total position was 171,200 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingots in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 54,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 286,100 tons. The social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets decreased by 1,900 tons to 67,100 tons on March 2 [18]. - Strategy View: In the industry, the lead ore inventory has increased slightly, the TC of lead concentrate has increased slightly, and the inventory of recycled raw materials has decreased marginally. The start - up rate of smelters has declined, and the start -