尿素：短期步入震荡格局

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, due to the intensification of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the energy - chemical sector is trending strongly. However, the upward price space of urea is restricted by policies, so it is expected to move in a range [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,817 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,826 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the trading volume was 343,555 lots, the open interest was 262,781 lots, an increase of 2,904 lots; the turnover was 1.255 billion yuan, an increase of 753.128 million yuan. The basis in Shandong was 73 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was - 97 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price was 13 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan. The spread between UR05 - UR09 was 25 yuan, down 14 yuan [2] - Spot Market: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, and Shandong Ruixing remained unchanged at 1,780 yuan/ton, 1,350 yuan/ton, and 1,780 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu increased by 30 yuan, 30 yuan, and 20 yuan to 1,750 yuan/ton, 1,830 yuan/ton, and 1,860 yuan/ton respectively. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions increased by 30 yuan to 1,890 yuan/ton and 1,750 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Supply - side Indicators: The operating rate was 90.86%, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 213,940 tons, also unchanged [2] 3.2 Industry News - As of February 25, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.176 million tons, an increase of 341,300 tons or 40.89% compared with the previous period (February 11). The main reason for the significant increase in inventory was the reduction of logistics and transportation during the Spring Festival, which led to the stagnation of shipments in most urea factories. After the fourth day of the first lunar month, the partial resumption of road logistics slowed down the inventory increase. Provinces with inventory decreases were Inner Mongolia and Yunnan, while those with inventory increases included Anhui, Gansu, and others [3]