棉花：等待新的驱动20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The cotton market is waiting for new drivers. The prices of cotton and cotton yarn futures and spot have shown certain fluctuations, and the market situation is affected by factors such as the Iranian situation and the recovery of the downstream market [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing prices of CF2605 and CY2605 decreased, with daily declines of 1.10% and 0.68% respectively, and night - session declines of 0.33% and 0.40% respectively. ICE cotton 5 also fell by 1.16%. The trading volume of CF2605 increased by 92,436 hands, and its position decreased by 25,191 hands. The trading volume of CY2605 decreased by 1,999 hands, and its position increased by 1,045 hands [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts increased by 155 to 11,327, and the effective forecast decreased by 122 to 1,122. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts remained at 0, and the effective forecast decreased by 52 to 148 [1] - Spot Price Data: The prices of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton decreased by 0.91%. The price of Shandong cotton increased by 0.07%, and the price of Hebei cotton remained unchanged. The 3128B index increased slightly by 0.01%, and the Cotlook:A index decreased by 1.05%. The prices of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count increased by 0.23% and 0.25% respectively [1] - Spread Data: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, and the spread between northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,170 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The trading of cotton spot was mostly light, with partial low - basis transactions being better. The spot basis was stable and slightly weak, with some downward adjustments [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The price of pure - cotton yarn remained stable overall, and the market trading was slowly recovering. Due to the fact that some workers in the downstream had not returned to work, the actual downstream orders were limited. It was expected that the downstream market would gradually recover after the Lantern Festival [2] - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures fell yesterday due to the risk - aversion sentiment caused by the Iranian situation, and the market sold some commodities unrelated to the Iranian situation [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a relatively neutral - to - slightly - positive view on the cotton market, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]