国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out [2] - Silver: In a volatile pattern [2] - Copper: Inventory increase restricts the upside space of prices [2] - Zinc: Range-bound fluctuations [2] - Lead: Lacks driving forces, prices are volatile [2] - Tin: Volatile adjustment [2] - Aluminum: Bullish operation [2] - Alumina: Range-bound fluctuations [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: The market trend is rather entangled [2] - Palladium: Expected to consolidate [2] - Nickel: The reality of the Indonesian ore end is catching up, be wary of speculative attributes in March [2] - Stainless steel: The contradiction at the ore end increases marginally, and the cost support center moves up [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,147.90, with a daily increase of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 1,159.98, with a night - session increase of 1.31%. The trading volume was 194,710, an increase of 25,303 from the previous day, and the open interest was 150,146, a decrease of 1,496 from the previous day. The spot gold in London rose 1.88% [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump stated that he would not stop the war until the goal was achieved, and did not rule out sending US ground troops to Iran "if necessary". The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months, and the price index soared to a nearly four - year high. Iran stated that it would not negotiate with the US, and the Strait of Hormuz was closed [4][6][7]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is 1 [7] Silver - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 23,019, with a daily increase of 1.94%, and the night - session closing price was 23,927.00, with a night - session increase of 6.95%. The trading volume was 389,182, an increase of 31,572 from the previous day, and the open interest was 171,170, a decrease of 2,359 from the previous day. The spot silver in London rose 6.30% [4]. - Trend Intensity: Silver trend intensity is 1 [7] Copper - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,850, with a daily decrease of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price was 102,280, with a night - session decrease of 1.51%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 326,580, an increase of 20,754 from the previous day, and the open interest was 574,994, a decrease of 3,504 from the previous day. The LME copper inventory increased by 3,975 [8]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump's statement on the Iran war. The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months. Hudbay Minerals obtained approval to expand the Copper Mountain mine. Japan's January copper and copper alloy imports increased by 13.51% year - on - year. Chile's January copper production decreased by 3% year - on - year [8][10]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 0 [10] Zinc - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24,850, with a daily increase of 0.57%. The LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 3,308, with a daily decrease of 1.74%. The Shanghai Zinc main contract trading volume was 186,884, an increase of 82,336 from the previous day, and the open interest was 95,630, an increase of 756 from the previous day. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 575 tons [11]. - News: Iran refused to negotiate with the US, and the Qatar LNG export plant was attacked, causing the European natural gas futures to soar [12]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is 1 [13] Lead - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,895, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 1,960, with a daily decrease of 0.96%. The Shanghai Lead main contract trading volume was 60,587, an increase of 11,518 from the previous day, and the open interest was 63,962, an increase of 118 from the previous day. The Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 1,888 tons [14]. - News: Trump's statement on the Iran war. The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months [15]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15] Tin - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 444,010, with a daily increase of 2.96%, and the night - session closing price was 416,600, with a night - session decrease of 7.16%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 462,899, an increase of 71,766 from the previous day, and the open interest was 49,947, a decrease of 5,845 from the previous day. The LME tin inventory decreased by 80 [18]. - Macro and Industry News: Qatar energy was attacked and stopped LNG production, causing the European gas price to soar. Iran was prepared for a long - term war [20]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is - 1 [19] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,465, an increase of 630 from the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,773, an increase of 29 from the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23,180, an increase of 450 from the previous day. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 124.60 million tons, an increase of 7.10 million tons from the previous day [21]. - Comprehensive News: The US federal appellate court rejected the Trump administration's request for tariff refund extension. Morgan Stanley warned that if the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, the Middle East crude oil would face a full - scale shutdown [22]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, alumina trend intensity is 0, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [22] Platinum and Palladium - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the platinum futures 2606 was 626.50, with a daily increase of 0.44%. The closing price of the palladium futures 2606 was 463.65, with a daily decrease of 0.26%. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 29,411, and the open interest was 35,729. The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium was 802, and the open interest was 14,360 [25]. - Macro and Industry News: Uzbekistan stopped gold exports. The US appellate court rejected the Trump administration's request to postpone tariff refunds [28]. - Trend Intensity: Platinum trend intensity is 0, and palladium trend intensity is 0 [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 140,890, a decrease of 670 from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,385, an increase of 180 from the previous day. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,088, an increase of 3 from the previous day [30]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia planned to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula. Solway Investment Group planned to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia was between 260 million and 270 million tons [30][31][33]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [36]