镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性，不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移

Report Title - Nickel: Real - world progress at the Indonesian mine end, beware of speculative nature in March [1] - Stainless Steel: Marginal increase in mine - end contradictions, upward shift of cost support center [2] Core Viewpoint The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the nickel and stainless - steel markets, including fundamental data tracking and macro - industry news, but does not explicitly state a unified core view. Industry News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, starting to treat cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the sharp rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions on its local facilities. The CGN mine is expected to restart between April and May 2026, in line with the PRONICO nickel - iron plant [3] - On February 10, 2026, the ESDM released the 2026 nickel work plan and cost budget (RKAB), with the approved nickel ore production quota between 260 million and 270 million tons. PT Weda Bay Nickel received a preliminary notice to submit an RKAB reflecting an annual production and sales volume of 12 million tons, a 70% reduction from 2025 [4][5][7] - On February 12, Philippine miners said that the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [6] - On February 18, 2026, a landslide occurred in a tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, resulting in one worker's death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [6] - On February 17, 2026, Sherritt International Corporation scaled down the operations of its joint - venture in Moa, Cuba, due to limited fuel supply [6] - The PKH working group imposed sanctions on four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province, Indonesia, and fined them according to the calculation of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources' Decree No. 391.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2025 [7] Fundamental Data Futures - Shanghai Nickel main contract (closing price): 140,890, down 670 from T - 1, up 5,700 from T - 5, up 9,050 from T - 10, down 2,170 from T - 22, up 25,510 from T - 66 [2] - Stainless steel main contract (closing price): 14,385, up 180 from T - 1, up 525 from T - 5, up 715 from T - 10, down 335 from T - 22, up 2,100 from T - 66 [2] - Shanghai Nickel main contract (trading volume): 554,437, up 55,750 from T - 1, up 174,909 from T - 5, down 7 from T - 10, down 191,231 from T - 22, up 429,745 from T - 66 [2] - Stainless steel main contract (trading volume): 284,967, up 78,720 from T - 1, up 61,084 from T - 5, down 2,690 from T - 10, down 300,694 from T - 22, up 130,369 from T - 66 [2] Industry Chain - 1 imported nickel: 137,950, down 700 from T - 1, up 2,450 from T - 5, up 7,050 from T - 10, down 2,600 from T - 22, up 21,350 from T - 66 [2] - Russian nickel premium/discount: - 300, unchanged from T - 1, down 200 from T - 5, down 200 from T - 10, down 600 from T - 22, down 900 from T - 66 [2] - Nickel bean premium/discount: 500, unchanged from T - 1, unchanged from T - 5, down 300 from T - 10, down 1,800 from T - 22, down 1,800 from T - 66 [2] - 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price): 1,088, up 3 from T - 1, up 36 from T - 5, up 48 from T - 10, up 59 from T - 22, up 193 from T - 66 [2] - Nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference: 292, down 10 from T - 1, down 12 from T - 5, up 23 from T - 10, down 85 from T - 22, up 21 from T - 66 [2] - Nickel plate import profit: - 344, down 756 from T - 1, down 72 from T - 5, up 411 from T - 10, down 938 from T - 22, up 1,548 from T - 66 [2] - Laterite nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF): 71, unchanged from T - 1, up 6 from T - 5, up 7 from T - 10, up 14 from T - 22, up 14 from T - 66 [2] - 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan: 14,450, up 50 from T - 1, up 350 from T - 5, up 350 from T - 10, up 150 from T - 22, up 1,775 from T - 66 [2] - 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron and Steel/Zhangpu: 14,950, unchanged from T - 1, up 300 from T - 5, up 300 from T - 10, up 150 from T - 22, up 1,700 from T - 66 [2] - 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi): 13,950, up 50 from T - 1, up 400 from T - 5, up 400 from T - 10, up 250 from T - 22, up 1,750 from T - 66 [2] - 304/2B - SS: 565, down 180 from T - 1, down 225 from T - 5, down 415 from T - 10, up 485 from T - 22, down 400 from T - 66 [2] - NI/SS: 9.79, down 0.17 from T - 1, up 0.04 from T - 5, up 0.15 from T - 10, up 0.08 from T - 22, up 0.40 from T - 66 [2] - High - carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55 Inner Mongolia): 8,550, unchanged from T - 1, unchanged from T - 5, unchanged from T - 10, up 100 from T - 22, up 550 from T - 66 [2] - Battery - grade nickel sulfate: 32,035, down 150 from T - 1, up 85 from T - 5, up 85 from T - 10, down 1,340 from T - 22, up 3,865 from T - 66 [2] - Nickel sulfate premium: 1,686, up 4 from T - 1, down 454 from T - 5, down 1,466 from T - 10, down 768 from T - 22, down 832 from T - 66 [2] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0 - Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2. - 2 means most bearish, 2 means most bullish [8]