格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is that gold is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias, and silver is expected to fluctuate [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has led to a risk - off sentiment. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up oil prices, which may drive up global inflation. Gold, as a safe - haven and anti - inflation asset, shows strong performance, while silver fluctuates sharply. Traders are advised to hold long positions and control risks [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold futures rose 1.68% to $5335.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 3.95% to $89.61 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract rose 1.14% to 1184.9 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract fell 3.81% to 22939 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2 Important Information - As of March 2nd, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, remained unchanged at 1101.33 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 90.16 tons to 15902.24 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.5%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 97.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by April is 16.3%, the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 83.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.4%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June is 40.3% [1]. - On Monday, the US announced that the February ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.4, with a market expectation of 51.5 and a previous value of 52.6 [1]. - US President Trump said on March 1st that the military operation against Iran may last about four weeks, and the US and Israel will continue military operations against Iran. The Israeli army chief of staff announced an "offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon". Trump said he would not rule out sending ground troops to Iran. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Larijani refuted the news of resuming US - Iran negotiations, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard said the Strait of Hormuz was closed, while the US Central Command said it was not closed [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - On February 28th, the US and Israel jointly carried out an air strike on Iran, and Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was attacked. On March 2nd, the US dollar index strengthened due to the expansion of the Middle - East conflict, and the COMEX gold opened higher and fluctuated widely, while the COMEX silver opened higher and then fell sharply [1][2]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Long - position holders should continue to hold their positions, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2].