格林大华期货早盘提示：甲醇-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "Bullish" [2] Core View - Due to the severe escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East over the weekend, international crude oil prices continued to rise significantly. Although the domestic methanol port inventory remains at 1446700 tons, which is relatively high compared to the same period. Although the import volume decreased from February to March, multiple olefin plants were shut down with uncertain resumption times. Under the geopolitical conflict, the resumption of multiple methanol plants in Iran was delayed, so the short - term methanol price will continue to show a strong trend [2] Summary by Related Directory Market Review - On the night of Monday, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 126 yuan to 2429 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China rose by 121 yuan to 2328 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 816 lots to 542000 lots, and short positions decreased by 53499 lots to 654000 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 92.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 50.6%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1446700 tons, an increase of 14500 tons compared to the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased slightly by 500 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 15000 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 535300 tons, an increase of 195000 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 57.32% [2] - Demand: The signed orders of methanol enterprises in the northwest are 56300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9700 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 205800 tons, a decrease of 109300 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 34.69%. The olefin operating rate is 85.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 82.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the acetic acid operating rate is 84.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 14.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.6%; the MTBE operating rate is 67.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% [2] - Import: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1734000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the average import price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. Among them, the import volume from Saudi Arabia was the largest, reaching 604400 tons, with an average import price of 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 14405400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [2] - Oil Price: The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran continues. The geopolitical tension has increased the risk of supply interruption, and international oil prices have risen. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 4.21 US dollars/barrel to 71.23 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 6.28%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures changed to the 05 contract, rising 4.87 US dollars/barrel to 77.74 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 6.68%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 26.7 to 511 yuan/barrel, and rose 55.9 to 566.9 yuan/barrel at night [2] Market Logic - The severe escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East over the weekend led to a significant rise in international crude oil prices. The domestic methanol port inventory remains at 1446700 tons, which is relatively high compared to the same period. Although the import volume decreased from February to March, multiple olefin plants were shut down with uncertain resumption times. Under the geopolitical conflict, the resumption of multiple methanol plants in Iran was delayed, so the short - term methanol price will continue to show a strong trend [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions, with the risk lying in the development of geopolitical events [2]