海外宏观周报：地缘风险扰动，避险情绪升温-20260303

Geopolitical Risks - Recent military actions by the US and Israel against Iran have escalated tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased prices for oil and precious metals[2] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, raising uncertainties about global energy supply[2] Labor Market Insights - Initial jobless claims in the US have shown slight increases, while continuing claims have decreased, indicating early signs of stabilization in the labor market[3] - Employment growth is concentrated in specific sectors, particularly healthcare, with risks of job losses in AI-exposed industries[3] Market Trends - Japanese equities are gaining attractiveness due to favorable policy environments post-election, with potential for increased foreign investment as current allocation levels are low[3] - Nvidia reported a 73% year-over-year increase in sales, reaching $68.1 billion, but faced a 5.46% drop in stock price due to concerns over customer concentration[9] Economic Indicators - The FHFA House Price Index and the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index have both shown a decline in growth rates, indicating limited momentum in the real estate recovery[9] - The Federal Reserve's focus remains on employment data, with expectations of a 2% GDP growth in Q1 2026, driven by robust consumer spending and industrial recovery[15] Risks and Recommendations - Geopolitical uncertainties and potential delays in Japanese policy implementation could negatively impact market performance[19] - Analysts suggest monitoring AI's impact on job markets and inflation, with some advocating for interest rate cuts in response to economic conditions[17]