工业硅期货月报-20260303

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The industrial silicon market in March 2026 will be in the process of re - balancing supply and demand. The price trend will depend on the relative speed of the resumption of production and the recovery of demand. The upper price is suppressed by the slow inventory consumption, and the lower price is supported by the decline in production and cost. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a weak and volatile pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - In February 2026, the main 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures showed a volatile downward trend. The monthly opening price was 8,880 yuan/ton, the highest was 9,010 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8,200 yuan/ton, and the monthly closing price was 8,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 455 yuan/ton from the closing price in January [2]. - The industrial silicon spot market in February 2026 showed a downward trend. On February 26, the average price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. 3.2. Main Influencing Factors - Supply - demand imbalance: SMM predicted that due to the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang and the decline in production in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and other regions, the domestic industrial silicon production in February 2026 was expected to decrease by more than 27% month - on - month. The downstream industries all had varying degrees of demand reduction, especially during the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream enterprises' operating rates were generally low and the purchasing willingness was not strong [3][4]. - Cost and price relationship: The current cost range of industrial silicon is about 8,300 - 8,800 yuan/ton, which provides certain support for the futures price. However, the spot market price is in a dilemma between demand suppression and cost support, resulting in a dull reaction to the futures decline [4]. - Inventory situation: The social inventory of industrial silicon before the festival was 562,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous week. It is expected that the inventory in February will be in a tight balance or slightly de - stocked state, which provides certain support for the price [4]. - Market sentiment and expectations: The market has a bearish expectation for the long - term supply and demand. Some funds are short - allocated based on the expectation of the resumption of production in northwest factories, which exerts pressure on the futures price. The market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, especially around the Spring Festival, and the light trading intensifies price fluctuations [4]. 3.3. Short - term Outlook - Upstream resumption of production: The resumption of production in major producing areas such as Xinjiang will be a key factor affecting market supply. If the resumption progress is faster than expected, it will bring obvious supply increase and put pressure on market prices [5]. - Downstream demand recovery: After the Spring Festival, the improvement of downstream demand will directly affect the price trend of industrial silicon. The operating rates and purchasing intentions of major downstream industries such as polysilicon and organic silicon are worthy of attention [6]. - Cost changes and price transmission: The production cost of industrial silicon is in the range of 8,300 - 8,800 yuan/ton, which provides certain support for the current price. Attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices, energy costs, and the price transmission effect of costs [6]. - Inventory change trend: Although the inventory in February is expected to be in a tight balance or slightly de - stocked state, the overall inventory level is still relatively high. The inventory change trend in March will be the focus of the market [6]. - Macroeconomic and policy factors: The macro - economic environment and relevant industrial policies will also affect the industrial silicon market. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2025 was 317 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 14%, which is a long - term benefit for the photovoltaic industry chain, but the implementation of policies and the actual demand release rhythm need to be concerned in the short term [6].