中辉有色观点-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long positions should be held [1] - Silver: Caution when chasing high prices [1] - Copper: Long positions should be held [1] - Zinc: Rebound is under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound is under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound is under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bullish in the short - term [1] - Nickel: Rebound is under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Try long positions with a light position [1] - Polysilicon: Low - level oscillation [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously bullish, hold long positions [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold's long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged due to geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases. Silver is affected by geopolitical fluctuations, and its industrial demand is increasing. Copper is affected by short - term high inventory and market sentiment but is still promising in the long run. Zinc and lead have weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, causing their prices to face pressure. Aluminum is affected by overseas supply disruptions and shows a short - term bullish trend. Nickel's price rebound is under pressure due to high inventory and weak consumption. Industrial silicon has a low - valued disk and can be lightly tested for long positions. Polysilicon is in a low - level oscillation. Lithium carbonate is expected to be bullish in the short term due to supply shortages and increased downstream production [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - Market Performance: Gold prices rose, with SHFE gold up 4.30% and COMEX gold up 0.75%. Silver prices showed mixed performance, with SHFE silver up 6.13% and COMEX silver down 5.06%. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.73%, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio increased by 6.11% [2]. - Basic Logic: The Middle - East geopolitical situation has changed drastically. The US - Israel coalition's attack on Iran and the death of Iran's Supreme Leader have increased the complexity and uncertainty of the situation. The surge in gold prices is driven by three factors: market panic, inflation expectations due to the threat of oil supply disruption, and central banks' and institutional investors' increased gold purchases to hedge risks [3]. - Strategy: Gold's long - term upward trend remains unchanged, with support around 1120. Silver should focus on the support around 23000 [3]. 3.2 Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices fell, with the Shanghai copper main contract down 1.23%, LME copper down 1.59%, and COMEX copper down 1.59%. Copper inventories increased, and the trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 11% [4]. - Industrial Logic: Global copper mines are in short supply, and major copper mining companies have lowered their production expectations. The war in Iran has limited direct impact on copper production. High copper prices and the holiday effect have led to significant inventory accumulation, but the effective circulating inventory is expected to be tight [5]. - Strategy: Hold long positions and take partial profits when the price is high. Be vigilant about the price's decline after the macro - sentiment fades. The long - term outlook for copper is still positive. The Shanghai copper should focus on the range of [100500, 104500] yuan/ton, and LME copper on [12800, 13400] dollars/ton [6]. 3.3 Zinc - Market Performance: Zinc prices were under pressure, with the Shanghai zinc main contract down 0.26% and LME zinc down 0.02%. Zinc inventories continued to accumulate [7]. - Industrial Logic: Global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. The supply side has weakened due to factors such as mine production reduction and smelter profit inversion. The demand side is weak due to the holiday effect, and inventory has seasonally accumulated [8]. - Strategy: Be cautious about going long. Pay attention to the post - holiday demand recovery rhythm and wait for more macro - guidance. In the long run, try long positions when the price pulls back. The Shanghai zinc should focus on the range of [24000, 25000] yuan/ton, and LME zinc on [3250, 3350] dollars/ton [9]. 3.4 Aluminum - Market Performance: Aluminum prices rebounded significantly, with the LME aluminum up 2.77% and the Shanghai aluminum main contract up 2.64%. Aluminum inventories increased [10]. - Industrial Logic: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. New electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to gradually increase production. The inventory is a short - term factor suppressing prices, but the downstream demand is gradually recovering. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation [12]. - Strategy: Go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short term, paying attention to the inventory accumulation. The main contract's operating range is [23000 - 25500] [13]. 3.5 Nickel - Market Performance: Nickel prices faced pressure in the rebound, with the LME nickel up 1.05% and the Shanghai nickel main contract down 0.47%. Stainless - steel prices rebounded, and nickel and stainless - steel inventories increased [14]. - Industrial Logic: Indonesia will reduce nickel ore production quotas in 2026. The weak reality of the nickel industry chain continues. Stainless - steel inventory has increased significantly due to the holiday and other factors, suppressing prices [16]. - Strategy: Go long on nickel and stainless - steel at low prices, paying attention to Indonesia's policies and stainless - steel inventory changes. The nickel main contract's operating range is [130000 - 150000] [17]. 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2605 of lithium carbonate opened high and went low, closing down. The inventory decreased [18]. - Industrial Logic: In March, lithium carbonate inventory is likely to continue to decline. The supply - demand gap is expected to widen due to overseas supply contraction, and the industry's peak - season replenishment cycle has started [20]. - Strategy: Go long when the price is low, with the range of [166000 - 176000] [21].