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Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives investment outlooks for individual futures varieties, including bullish oscillations for soybean meal, short - term oscillations for rapeseed meal, oscillatory consolidation for palm oil, range oscillations for soybean oil and rapeseed oil, a phased correction for cotton, downward pressure for red dates, and weak oscillations for live pigs [1] Core Views - For soybean meal, it is expected to have a range - bound market. The slowdown of heavy rain in eastern Brazil and hot, dry weather in southern Brazil will speed up soybean harvesting. Oil - meal arbitrage has pushed down the price slightly. It is treated as a range - bound market without a soybean production cut in Argentina. Attention should be paid to South American weather and the March USDA report [1][2] - Rapeseed meal is currently in a consumption off - season with a slightly weak fundamental situation. It is expected to follow the trend of soybean meal. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed indicates a normal supply recovery, and a bullish view should be taken with caution [1][6][7] - Palm oil has weak export data this month. The increase in Indonesia's export tariff raises the import cost and is beneficial for Malaysia's palm oil export expectations. The rise in crude oil prices due to the US - Iran situation has a positive impact on palm oil, but there is a lack of obvious bullish drivers in its fundamentals. It is considered a short - term event - driven bullish market [1][8][10] - Soybean oil has a limited short - term upward space due to the sufficient domestic soybean supply. It is expected to operate below the previous high in the context of a global soybean harvest, with a short - term bullish oscillatory trend and continued pressure on the basis [1] - Rapeseed oil's price was boosted by the international oil price increase and the improvement in long - term supply. Supported by high spot prices and basis, the downward space of the main contract is limited. It shows a bullish oscillatory trend, but caution is needed when chasing the rise near the previous high [1] - Cotton is facing a phased correction. The strong risk - aversion sentiment in the outer market has led to a decline in US cotton. The domestic market has also回调ed, with the previous bullish sentiment cooling. The compression of spinning profit and high internal - external price difference bring short - term pressure, but a long - term bullish view is maintained [1][11][14] - Red dates' market trading sentiment is cautious, and the trading volume is weak. The supply - demand pattern has become looser. The short - term disk is suppressed by high inventory, and attention should be paid to the support at the previous low. The possibility of a phased recovery depends on the inventory reduction in March - April [1][15][16] - Live pigs' supply remains high due to the slow reduction of the breeding sow population. After the Spring Festival, consumption enters the off - season, and the theoretical monthly slaughter in March is expected to increase. The disk is expected to be under pressure. The medium - to - long - term contracts lack upward momentum, but short - term long - positions can be considered if there is a significant回调 [1][17][19] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Price and Spread Data: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 2826 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3162.29 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 78.7004 yuan/ton, up 1.93 yuan from the previous day. The basis of soybean meal 01 is 72 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2] - Production Forecast: BAGE maintains the forecast of 48.5 million tons of soybean production in the 2025/26 season. Safras & Mercado lowers the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production forecast by 1.56 million tons to 177.72 million tons, while Rabobank raises it to 181 million tons [3] - Inventory Data: As of February 27, 2026, the national port soybean inventory is 6.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 706,000 tons. The national oil - mill soybean inventory is 5.9669 million tons, a 14.85% increase from the previous week, and the bean粕 inventory is 701,200 tons, a 16.77% decrease from the previous week [4] Rapeseed Meal - Price and Spread Data: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 2295 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day. The national average spot price remains unchanged. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 447.909 yuan/ton, up 30.10 yuan from the previous day. The basis of rapeseed meal 01 is 187 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan [5] - Policy and Inventory: On February 28, 2026, a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed was imposed, and the 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal was suspended from March 1. As of February 27, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory is 151,000 tons, a week - on - week increase, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 6,500 tons, also an increase [7] Palm Oil - Price, Volume and Inventory Data: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 8898 yuan/ton, up 1.34% from the previous day. The national average price is 8890 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. The national daily trading volume is 3000 tons. The import cost is 8991 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan from the previous day. The weekly commercial inventory is 786,700 tons, an 11.37% increase from the previous week [8] - Export and Policy: Malaysia's palm oil export volume from February 1 - 28, 2026, decreased by 21.46% month - on - month. Indonesia raised the special export tax on crude palm oil and the export tariff in March [10] Cotton - Price, Spread and Inventory Data: The main contract CF2605 price is 15225 yuan/ton, down 1.10% from the previous day. The spinning profit is - 1803.10 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan. The national cotton commercial inventory is 5.2676 million tons, a decrease from the previous week [11] - Production Forecast: The 2026/27 global cotton production is expected to decrease by 3.9 million bales to 116 million bales. China's 2026/27 cotton production is expected to be 32 million bales, a decrease of 3 million bales from 2025/26 [12][13] Red Dates - Price, Spread and Inventory Data: The main contract CJ2605 price is 8840 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous day. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 11,852 tons, unchanged from the previous week [15] - Market Situation: The downstream market trading has resumed, with stable spot prices. The market arrival volume is small, and the demand in the off - season is weak. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the short - term disk is under pressure [16] Live Pigs - Price, Spread and Inventory Data: The main contract LH2605 price is 11220 yuan/ton, down 2.31% from the previous day. The national average slaughter price is 10500 yuan/ton, down 3.14%. The national sample enterprise pig inventory is 38.219 million, a 0.67% decrease from the previous month [17] - Supply and Demand Situation: The 2 - month slaughter plan was not fully completed, and the 3 - month slaughter plan is expected to increase by 17.63%. The short - term second - fattening entry sentiment is weak. After the Spring Festival, the consumption enters the off - season, and the slaughter profit and breeding profit are both weak [18]