PTA：成本支撑偏强；MEG：单边趋势偏强：对二甲苯：地缘影响下，成本推涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX has a strong unilateral trend, suggesting a long 05 and short 09 hedge, and long PX short PF. Geopolitical issues support the near - end cost, and attention should be paid to domestic PX operating rate changes [9]. - PTA has a strong near - end support. It is recommended to use a long 05 and short 09 hedge and long SC short PTA. Cost - end crude oil and PX are expected to rise, with main valuation disturbances from PX cost [9]. - MEG should be operated in the 3700 - 4000 range with a 5 - 9 positive spread strategy. Iranian partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may reduce marginal imports, and short - covering may drive price recovery [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - PX: The previous day's closing price of the PX main contract was 7836, up 442 with a daily increase of 5.98%. The PX5 - 9 spread closed at 30, up 56 from the previous day [2]. - PTA: The previous day's closing price of the PTA main contract was 5552, up 302 with a daily increase of 5.75%. The PTA5 - 9 spread closed at 14, up 40 from the previous day [2]. - MEG: The previous day's closing price of the MEG main contract was 3925, up 222 with a daily increase of 6.00%. The MEG5 - 9 spread closed at - 107, up 25 from the previous day [2]. - PF: The previous day's closing price of the PF main contract was 7002, up 350 with a daily increase of 5.26%. The PF3 - 4 spread closed at - 254, down 192 from the previous day [2]. - SC: The previous day's closing price of the SC main contract was 527.8, up 39.4 with a daily increase of 8.07%. The SC2 - 3 spread closed at 4.5, up 0.1 from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - PX: The previous day's PX CFR China price was 999.33 dollars/ton, up 67.66 dollars from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 295.04 dollars, down 2.13 dollars [2]. - PTA: The previous day's PTA price in East China was 5345 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan. The PTA processing fee was 285.43 yuan, down 90.45 yuan [2]. - MEG: The previous day's MEG spot price was 3750 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan [2]. - Naphtha: The previous day's MOPJ naphtha price was 715.5 dollars/ton, up 78.88 dollars. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34 dollars, unchanged [2]. Fundamental Data PX - In 2025, the Middle East had 6.1 million tons of PX nameplate capacity, accounting for 7.4% of global output. On March 2, PX prices rose significantly, and the estimated price was 999 dollars/ton, up 67 dollars from last Friday. An East China 2.5 million - ton PX unit is under maintenance, and another 2 million - ton unit is planned to be shut down in mid - March for 30 - 40 days [5]. PTA - An East China 2.5 million - ton PTA unit, a 3.6 million - ton unit, and a South China 1.25 million - ton unit have resumed normal operation. An East China 3 million - ton PTA unit is planned to be shut down for maintenance tomorrow for about 18 days [6]. MEG - An Iranian 450,000 - ton/year MEG unit has shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. The March shipment plan of another 400,000 - ton/year unit has been canceled. On March 2, the MEG port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 1.002 million tons, up 20,000 tons [6]. Polyester Market - On March 2, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 8 - 9%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber plants were partially strong, with an average sales rate of 88%. Over the weekend, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were strong, with an average sales rate of over 300% [7]. - Two East China polyester bottle - chip units totaling 1.2 million tons have restarted. A Henan 150,000 - ton direct - spun polyester staple fiber unit stopped feeding for maintenance on March 2 for 10 days. A Zhejiang 400,000 - ton unit has restarted, and a 200,000 - ton polyester unit in Taicang has restarted [8]. Geopolitical Impact - US President Donald Trump said the war between the US and Iran is expected to last four to five weeks but may last longer. On March 2 afternoon, crude oil futures rose due to the intensification of US - Iran tensions, and the key shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz was affected [3].