申万期货品种策略日报-天胶-20260303

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Monday, synthetic rubber prices rose significantly, and natural rubber prices followed slightly. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts, the short - term strength of crude oil has driven the chemical products to perform strongly. Synthetic rubber is expected to continue to strengthen, which will drive up the price of natural rubber. Fundamentally, natural rubber is in the seasonal low - production stage. Domestic production areas have stopped tapping, and Thai production areas are also gradually stopping. The low - production season usually lasts until May. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate, and the short - term supply elasticity is weakened. The raw rubber price is relatively firm. On the demand side, there is support for the resumption of production after the Spring Festival. The start - up of all - steel tires is expected to be stable, and the rubber price is expected to remain strong [2] Group 3: Summary of Market Data Futures Market - RU主力: The previous day's closing price was 17,245, up 90 from the day before yesterday, with a daily increase of 0.52%. The trading volume was 364,042, and the open interest was 170,621, a decrease of 3,594 [2] - NR主力: The previous day's closing price was 13,965, up 105 from the day before yesterday, with a daily increase of 0.76%. The trading volume was 62,794, and the open interest was 59,004, an increase of 4,284 [2] - BR主力: The previous day's closing price was 13,490, up 825 from the day before yesterday, with a daily increase of 6.51%. The trading volume was 126,676, and the open interest was 51,790, an increase of 38 [2] - Spreads: RU - NR was 3,280 (down 15), RU - BR was 3,755 (down 735), and NR - BR was 475 (down 720) [2] - Basis: RU basis was - 195 (compared with - 205 the day before), mixed - RU was - 1,390 (compared with - 1,300 the day before), and smoked sheet - RU was 2,155 (compared with 2,045 the day before) [2] Spot Market - Domestic whole - milk rubber: In Shandong, the price was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 0.59%; in Shanghai, it was 17,050 yuan/ton, up 0.59%; in Kunming, it was 16,900 yuan/ton, up 0.60% [2] - Smoked sheet rubber: In Shandong and Shanghai, the price was 19,400 yuan/ton, up 1.04% [2] - Mixed rubber: In Qingdao, the price was 15,855 yuan/ton, with no change; in Yunnan, it was 16,550 yuan/ton, up 1.07% [2] Downstream Market - Thai smoked sheet: The price was 72.29 baht/kg, up 0.39% [2] - Thai cup lump: The price was 57.87 baht/kg, with no change [2] - Thai latex: The price was 68.8 baht/kg, up 0.73% [2]