华宝期货晨报煤焦-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - During the important national meetings, steel mills are expected to implement phased emission reduction controls, putting pressure on the rigid demand for coking coal and other furnace materials. The mining end is in the复产 phase, and the supply - demand mismatch may lead to the weak operation of coking coal prices [2] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures prices first declined and then rose, closing slightly higher at the end of the day, with a slight correction in night - trading prices, maintaining an overall oscillating pattern. Spot prices in the production areas remained stable for the time being, while port resource prices fluctuated slightly [2] Impact of External Events - The escalation of the overseas situation over the weekend had a relatively limited impact on the ferrous metal sector [2] Policy Influences - This week, important national meetings will be held. On one hand, pay attention to the expected changes in macro policies. On the other hand, some steel enterprises in North China will implement phased emission reduction controls from March 4th to March 11th, with blast furnace loads reducing emissions independently by no less than 30%. Short - term emission reduction measures will put pressure on the demand for coking coal and other furnace materials [2] Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - Last week, coal mines entered the peak of resuming production, with most private coal mines starting to resume production. The daily production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.516 million tons and 0.649 million tons respectively, an increase of 0.43 million tons and 0.19 million tons compared to the previous week. After the Spring Festival, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has returned to a relatively high level, with an average daily customs clearance volume of about 176,000 tons last week, and the inventory in the port supervision area is still at a high level, suppressing the futures prices [2] Demand - Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces was about 2.33 million tons. Downstream enterprises mainly consumed their in - plant raw material inventories. Some coking enterprises had restricted coke transportation, resulting in an increase in in - plant inventory. Affected by environmental protection and production restriction policies this week, the growth rhythm of hot metal output is expected to slow down [2]